Will the monthly Arctic Sea Ice Volume for July 2023, as reported from the PIOMAS reanalysis, be greater than 10,000 km^3?
Criteria:
The market will resolve YES if the number reported from PIOMAS (presently at http://psc.apl.uw.edu/research/projects/arctic-sea-ice-volume-anomaly/data/) for the "Monthly Ice Volume" is greater than or equal to 10,000 km^3. I will use the csv data linked in the above URL. Please note the data is in units of 10^3 km^3, so a value of 10.000 in the .csv file equals 10,000 km^3; e.g., a value of >= 10.000 in the csv file for July 2023 will resolve YES; a value < 10.000 will resolve NO).
Motivation:
Quote from the PIOMAS [1] web page: "Sea ice volume is an important climate indicator. It depends on both ice thickness and extent and therefore more directly tied to climate forcing than extent alone."
Resolution Timeframe:
This market will close on August 1. I will try to resolve the market within a day of the data for July 2023 becoming available. To keep the market somewhat timely, I will give up to (roughly) three weeks for the data to be published; specifically, if the data for the month of July 2023 is not available for download by August 21, 2023 12:00 PM EST, I will resolve this market to N/A then. For reference, as of July 8, the data for June is already available, so hopefully this should not be a problem.
Comments:
I would like recreate this market from now on regularly (with slightly different, more relevant numbers for the question's resolution) as this becomes more and more urgent a topic. Keep in mind that PIOMAS is a reanalysis, so this market's question is ultimately predicting the model's estimate for arctic ice volume (see the PIOMAS "Purpose" section for more information).
A few references for general knowledge:
[1] PIOMAS:
http://psc.apl.uw.edu/research/projects/arctic-sea-ice-volume-anomaly/
[2] Some further nice info graphics on sea ice, courtesy of Zachary Labe:
https://zacklabe.com/arctic-sea-ice-volumethickness/
[3] Sea Ice Prediction Network (providing forecasts for sea ice extent, analysis, and many other things):
https://www.arcus.org/sipn
🏅 Top traders
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I'll be checking the data at least a couple times a day for when it becomes available.
If you want (for fun), now that it is closed, please share your predictions of what your expected value (or range) was for this month:
My guess for July 2023: 10,739,671
I have also created a new market for August for the same topic:
I had a typo in the description it should say 'resolve' instead of 'close'. It should have been clear what I meant but no one said anything:
This market will close on August 1. I will try to close the market within a day of the data for July 2023 becoming available.
This market will close on August 1. I will try to resolve the market within a day of the data for July 2023 becoming available.
I am updating the description.