Length of longest sequence of years with an increasing July temperature anomaly for the period 2020-2035.

Question

The market resolves to highest sequence of years July temperature anomaly increases in the period 2020-2035.

With only the current data for the period this would resolve as 2.

2020 - 0.91C

2021 - 0.92C

2022 - 0.89C

2023 - 1.12C

This market will resolve based on NOAA data (https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/climate-at-a-glance/global/time-series/globe/land_ocean/1/7/2020-2023) with the following options:

Time scale: 1-month.

Month: July.

Start Year: 2020

End Year: 2035

Region: Global

Surface: Land & Ocean

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Manifold Markets · Answer

Per Manifold Markets prediction market, 6+ years, followed by 3 years and 4 years are most likely. See the market for live updates (3 traders, as of Oct 4, 2023).

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