Will the monthly Arctic Sea Ice Volume for August 2023, as reported from the PIOMAS reanalysis, be greater than or equal to 6,100 km^3?
Criteria:
The market will resolve YES if the number reported from PIOMAS (presently at http://psc.apl.uw.edu/research/projects/arctic-sea-ice-volume-anomaly/data/) for the "Monthly Ice Volume" is greater than or equal to 6,100 km^3. I will use the csv data linked in the above URL. Please note the data is in units of 10^3 km^3, so a value of 6.100 in the .csv file equals 6,100 km^3; e.g., a value of >= 6.100 in the csv file for August 2023 will resolve YES; a value < 6.100 will resolve NO).
Motivation:
Quote from the PIOMAS [1] web page: "Sea ice volume is an important climate indicator. It depends on both ice thickness and extent and therefore more directly tied to climate forcing than extent alone."
Resolution Timeframe:
This market will close on September 1. I will try to resolve the market within a day of the data for August 2023 becoming available. To keep the market somewhat timely, I will give up to (roughly) three weeks for the data to be published; specifically, if the data for the month of August 2023 is not available for download by September 21, 2023 12:00 PM EST, I will resolve this market to N/A then.
Comments:
Keep in mind that PIOMAS is a reanalysis, so this market's question is ultimately predicting the model's estimate for arctic ice volume (see the PIOMAS "Purpose" section for more information).
A few references for general knowledge:
[1] PIOMAS:
http://psc.apl.uw.edu/research/projects/arctic-sea-ice-volume-anomaly/
[2] Some further nice info graphics on sea ice, courtesy of Zachary Labe:
https://zacklabe.com/arctic-sea-ice-volumethickness/
[3] Sea Ice Prediction Network (providing forecasts for sea ice extent, analysis, and many other things):
Related questions
🏅 Top traders
| # | Name | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ176 | |
| 2 | Ṁ71 | |
| 3 | Ṁ12 | |
| 4 | Ṁ12 | |
| 5 | Ṁ9 |
Last month my (naive, historical) prediction for August was 6,126,192 and that's how I came up with the 6,100 number for this market.
As the market is closed now, feel free to share your predictions before I resolve this when the data becomes available for this month.
In the mean time, you can now bet on a market with the same idea but for September:
Piecewise linear fit has been shown to be statistically significantly better than straight line fit through all the data. I prefer a sloped gompertz fit to the long term trend data. However I haven't done such a fit for a while.
So for this market I just looked at the changes from July to August. Most years changes seemed to suggest this year would come out higher than 6100. The market wasn't agreeing which made me slightly concerned so I didn't bet much on this simple approach.