Resolution criteria

This market resolves YES if Anthropic's annualized revenue run rate exceeds OpenAI's annualized revenue run rate at any point during 2026. Both companies regularly disclose or leak their revenue run rates to media outlets. Resolution will be based on the most recent publicly reported figures from credible sources (The Information, Bloomberg, CNBC, Reuters, WSJ, or direct company disclosures) as of December 31, 2026. If no clear crossover occurs during 2026, the market resolves NO.

Background

Anthropic hit $14B in annualized revenue in February 2026, up from $9B at the end of 2025 and $1B at the end of 2024. OpenAI's annualized revenue surpassed $20 billion in 2025, up from $6 billion in 2024. Anthropic's annualized revenue has been growing at 10× per year since reaching $1B, outpacing OpenAI's growth of 3.4× per year. Claude Code, Anthropic's agentic coding tool launched in May 2025, now has run-rate revenue above $2.5 billion, more than doubled since the start of 2026.