Resolution criteria

This market resolves YES if Anthropic's post-money valuation in any future funding round exceeds 50% of OpenAI's post-money valuation in their respective next funding rounds after this market is created.

For resolution purposes:

• Use the most recent publicly announced post-money valuations from primary funding rounds (not secondary share sales or implied valuations)

• If either company completes multiple funding rounds before resolution, compare the valuations from their most recent rounds

• If only one company completes a funding round, the market resolves N/A

• Resolution sources: official company announcements, SEC filings, or major financial news outlets (Bloomberg, Reuters, WSJ, TechCrunch)

Background

As of December 31, 2025, Anthropic signed a term sheet for a $10 billion funding round at a $350 billion valuation, while OpenAI is in talks to raise up to $100 billion at a valuation of up to $830 billion. Anthropic's revenue run rate hit over $9 billion at the end of 2025, compared to OpenAI's annualized revenue exceeding $20 billion by late 2025. Anthropic completed a Series F funding round in September 2025 at a $183 billion valuation, while OpenAI closed a $40 billion financing in March 2025 at a $300 billion valuation.

Considerations

Valuation multiples in frontier AI differ significantly from traditional software metrics. Anthropic's $350 billion valuation translates to roughly 39× estimated 2025 revenue, while OpenAI's $500 billion valuation represents roughly 167x revenue. Both companies' funding rounds involve infrastructure partnerships and compute commitments that blur traditional equity financing, making announced valuations subject to interpretation and potential revision. Additionally, both companies are preparing for potential IPOs as soon as 2026, which could affect future funding round timing and structure.

This description was generated by AI.