50 Put EOY 2024 on "In 2028, will an AI be able to generate a full high-quality movie to a prompt?" (2x)
3
145Ṁ296resolved Jan 1
Resolved as
16%1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
This market resolves to 2 * max(50 - px, 0)
Where px is settlement price of Scott Alexander's AI movie market at the end of 2024.
If the linked market is trading at 60%, this resolves to 0%. If the linked market is trading at 38%, this resolves to 24%.
Settlement details: I'll take the volume weighted average price over the last 24 hours of 2024. I may tweak or slightly randomize settlement time to improve fairness. I won't trade in either market leading up to settlement.
https://manifold.markets/ScottAlexander/in-2028-will-an-ai-be-able-to-gener
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