50 Put EOY 2024 on "In 2028, will an AI be able to generate a full high-quality movie to a prompt?" (2x) | Manifold

50 Put EOY 2024 on "In 2028, will an AI be able to generate a full high-quality movie to a prompt?" (2x)

Basic

2

Ṁ224

Jan 1

37%

chance

1D

1W

1M

ALL

This market resolves to 2 * max(50 - px, 0)

Where px is settlement price of Scott Alexander's AI movie market at the end of 2024.

If the linked market is trading at 60%, this resolves to 0%. If the linked market is trading at 38%, this resolves to 24%.

Settlement details: I'll take the volume weighted average price over the last 24 hours of 2024. I may tweak or slightly randomize settlement time to improve fairness. I won't trade in either market leading up to settlement.

https://manifold.markets/ScottAlexander/in-2028-will-an-ai-be-able-to-gener

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I'd be inclined to spread the reference price window out a bit more -- VWAP over the last 12 or even 24 hours of trading, or something. Last 5 trades is still manipulable.

Longer intervals do make things harder for bots to work with; do you expect meaningful liquidity on these markets from quant bots?

@EvanDaniel 24 hour vwap seems fair, i'll change it

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