Will any AI music I release achieve a Manifold rating >= 5 in 2025?
20
1kṀ19k
2026
58%
chance

In 2024, I started generating music with AI models. I've generally found that the latest models are now capable of outputting any sound that is possible. The limitations of AI music are now generally caused by my selecting the wrong inferences (it usually takes 600-1000 runs plus editing), not understanding song structure, or not understanding what listeners like and dislike.

Every time I publish a new release, which I've been doing about once per month, I will post it here and create a poll scaled from 1 to 7. The polls will remain open for one week after release. If the average rating on any song is greater than or equal to 5, this market will resolve to YES. Otherwise, if January 1, 2026 arrives before that occurs, the market will resolve to NO.

In 2024, the highest average rating for these polls was 4.33.

I intend to pay for and use the latest models and software tools as they are released, even if they cost money.

Current 2025 catalog:

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