Will any AI model score above 95% on GRAB by the end of 2025?
Will any AI model score above 95% on GRAB by the end of 2025?
9
600Ṁ185Dec 31
40%
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GRAB ("A Challenging GRaph Analysis Benchmark for Large Multimodal Models") focuses on the tasks human analysts might typically perform when interpreting figures. Such tasks include estimating the mean, intercepts or correlations of functions and data series and performing transforms.
Examples from the benchmark are shown below.
This market will resolve to "yes" if any model scores above 95% on the GRAB benchmark by the end of 2025 (11:59 PM UK time, 31st December, 2025).
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
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