This market resolves YES if Russia launches a military incursion (defined as sending troops across the border without permission) into Moldova before January 1, 2026. This includes operations in or targeting the breakaway region of Transnistria, where Russia already maintains a military presence.

Resolution will be based on credible reports from major news outlets and/or official statements from NATO, the EU, or the Moldovan government confirming such an incursion.

Sources for monitoring:

• Institute for the Study of War

• Reuters

  Background

  Moldova is a small Eastern European country situated between Romania and Ukraine. The breakaway region of Transnistria, located on Moldova's eastern border with Ukraine, has been under de facto Russian control since 1992, with approximately 1,500 Russian troops stationed there as "peacekeepers." Moldova has been moving toward European integration, having been granted EU candidate status in 2022.

  Russia has maintained influence in Moldova through various means, including energy leverage, political interference, and its military presence in Transnistria. Recent incidents have included Russian military drones violating Moldovan airspace, with some crashing in southern Moldova following attacks on Ukrainian targets in February 2025.

  Resolution Criteria

  This market resolves YES if credible evidence emerges that Russia has launched a military incursion into Moldova before January 1, 2026. A military incursion is defined as Russian troops crossing the internationally recognized Moldovan border without permission from the Moldovan government.

  Specifically:

  • The incursion must involve actual Russian military personnel (not just proxies or mercenaries acting without official Russian backing)

  • Operations targeting or occurring within Transnistria count for resolution purposes

  • The deployment of additional troops to Transnistria without Moldova's permission would qualify as an incursion

  Resolution will be based on:

  • Credible reports from major news outlets

  • Official statements from NATO, the EU, or the Moldovan government

  • Analysis from reputable sources such as the Institute for the Study of War

  The market will resolve NO if January 1, 2026 passes without a confirmed Russian military incursion into Moldova.

  Considerations

  While the threat of a Russian invasion of Moldova is currently assessed as low, several factors could change this assessment:

  • Significant Russian military advances in southern Ukraine

  • Political destabilization in Moldova

  • Escalation of tensions over Transnistria

  • Russian claims of threats to Russian-speaking populations in Moldova

  Drone incursions alone, without the presence of Russian troops, will not be sufficient for a YES resolution.