Will there be an 18 year old [or younger] self-made billionaire (in 2023 dollars) by 2030?
Will there be an 18 year old [or younger] self-made billionaire (in 2023 dollars) by 2030?
69
2.2kṀ5626
2031
32%
chance

This is obviously a question about wunderkind, and to some extent about child labor laws. The exemplar would be some hypercompetent young founder, but hitting it big in crypto would be fine, or any other way of getting there.

Self-made is here defined as meaning the money cannot be inherited: specifically, no more than $13m in 2023 US Dollars can come from investments or gifts from parents (somewhat arbitrary; derived from the current US gift tax exemption). Obviously rich families help in many intangible ways; for the purpose of this question that's fine. If the parent gave them $500m and they're now worth $1.5b, that does not satisfy the definition, although still an impressive feat.

As far as I can tell, Kylie Jenner is the closest so far, having in 2018 had a net worth of approx $1.1b in 2023 dollars at the age of 20.

Get
Ṁ1,000
to start trading!

What is this?

What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
ṀWhy use play money?
Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
© Manifold Markets, Inc.TermsPrivacy