Will there be a half-trillionaire by the end of 2025?

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Dec 31

42%

chance

ALL

Resolves according to the Forbes Real Time Billionaires list. If at any point before the end of 2025, any person has a displayed net worth greater than or equal to $500 billion USD, this market resolves YES.

Otherwise, it resolves NO.

If Forbes stops updating their list, I will pick a new canonical source that seems as reliable as possible.

/Sketchy/who-will-be-the-first-halftrilliona

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opened a Ṁ500 NO at 40% order14d

Uh oh

bought Ṁ50 YES1mo

Tesla at $480 if there is no increase in SpaceX or XAI. Every $2 billion or so valuation increase in Spacex or XAI should give another billion to Elon net worth. Reduce the tesla share price needed by $2.

bought Ṁ50 YES1mo

$415 billion today. Tesla getting back to all time highs in January will do it because of increases in XAI valuation. SpaceX valuation increase coming mid-year as well.

24d

@brianwang $431 billion. $23.5 share price move for $12.8 billion. $1.836 share price increase is $1 billion. $488 tesla share price will do it. Less if there is increase in SpaceX, Boring company, or XAI valuation.