Will any of Scott's "If I review X, will it get at least 125 likes" markets posted prior to May 4, 2022 resolve NO?

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resolved Mar 1

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If not, then maybe it seems like Scott's setting the bar too low. Markets indicated by this post: https://manifold.markets/ScottAlexander/if-i-review-rick-perlsteins-nixonla https://manifold.markets/ScottAlexander/if-i-review-joseph-stiglitzs-whithe https://manifold.markets/ScottAlexander/if-i-review-mark-brinells-the-searc https://manifold.markets/ScottAlexander/if-i-review-edward-teachs-penelopes https://manifold.markets/ScottAlexander/if-i-review-one-of-rene-girards-boo https://manifold.markets/ScottAlexander/if-i-review-vaclav-havels-the-power https://manifold.markets/ScottAlexander/if-i-review-bruce-finks-a-clinical

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There's a not-quite-arbitrage opportunity where if the top 3-ish markets here, multiply their probabilities, then add the probability of this one - if it's greater than 100% you can buy no in all 4 markets and make money with very high probability

Assuming the current probabilities of those markets are accurate and Scott probably only reviews the three or four with the highest chance (and the others therefore resolve N/A), 35% seems about right.

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