Sinclair

Sinclair Chen bought M$20 of NO20 days ago

There's a not-quite-arbitrage opportunity where if the top 3-ish markets here, multiply their probabilities, then add the probability of this one - if it's greater than 100% you can buy no in all 4 markets and make money with very high probability
Forrest

Forrest bought M$10 of NO21 days ago

Assuming the current probabilities of those markets are accurate and Scott probably only reviews the three or four with the highest chance (and the others therefore resolve N/A), 35% seems about right.