If I review Bruce Fink's "A Clinical Introduction To Lacanian Psychoanalysis", will it get at least 125 likes?
resolved Apr 28
This is a conditional prediction market intended to help me determine what books to review. It resolves as positive if I post a review of "A Clinical Introduction To Lacanian Psychoanalysis" on ACX and get at least 125 Substack likes within one week of posting. It resolves as negative if I post the review and get fewer than 125 likes. If I don't review this book within a year, it resolves N/A. Close date updated to 2023-04-26 10:52 pm Close date updated to 2023-04-26 10:52 am Close date updated to 2022-04-26 11:59 pm
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I assume that people will Goodhart this like count, so I'm going towards YES here.
predicted YES
Why just waiting? The current like count is 74/125...
The review is posted: https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/book-review-a-clinical-introduction?s=r Now awaiting the final like count
bought Ṁ20 of NO
Doubling down on NO. I similarly expect this market to be inflated, and I still don't think people understand that you can buy NO to get Scott to review other books.
bought Ṁ20 of NO
I expect that all this book markets are overinflated by people not actually estimating probabilities.
sold Ṁ9 of NO
sold Ṁ26 of NO
sold Ṁ78 of NO
bought Ṁ200 of NO
The new article posted by Scott should lower the price of this specific market.
bought Ṁ1 of NO
I feel like it should be some trend adjusted measure of likes, or book review specific likes. As is I could see ACX/heart count just trending upward generally making all of these resolve to yes and not giving much signal re: which books people will actually like.
sold Ṁ172 of NO
Scott, would you mind chucking in a link to your blog in your profile. Why do I ask? I wont lie there is a market about that: https://manifold.markets/Martin/will-scott-alexander-fill-in-his-pr
bought Ṁ50 of NO
Although the probability is right, I reckon people will get bored hodling this one and pull their YES money out early for that 'too good to be true' golden trade that pops up.
bought Ṁ15 of NO
Wagering my profit from day trading the other books on this one.