If I review Bruce Fink's "A Clinical Introduction To Lacanian Psychoanalysis", will it get at least 125 likes?
56
103Ṁ6399resolved Apr 28
Resolved
YES1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
This is a conditional prediction market intended to help me determine what books to review.
It resolves as positive if I post a review of "A Clinical Introduction To Lacanian Psychoanalysis" on ACX and get at least 125 Substack likes within one week of posting. It resolves as negative if I post the review and get fewer than 125 likes. If I don't review this book within a year, it resolves N/A.
Close date updated to 2023-04-26 10:52 pm
Close date updated to 2023-04-26 10:52 am
Close date updated to 2022-04-26 11:59 pm
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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The review is posted: https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/book-review-a-clinical-introduction?s=r Now awaiting the final like count
Doubling down on NO. I similarly expect this market to be inflated, and I still don't think people understand that you can buy NO to get Scott to review other books.
I expect that all this book markets are overinflated by people not actually estimating probabilities.
I feel like it should be some trend adjusted measure of likes, or book review specific likes. As is I could see ACX/heart count just trending upward generally making all of these resolve to yes and not giving much signal re: which books people will actually like.
Scott, would you mind chucking in a link to your blog in your profile. Why do I ask? I wont lie there is a market about that: https://manifold.markets/Martin/will-scott-alexander-fill-in-his-pr
Although the probability is right, I reckon people will get bored hodling this one and pull their YES money out early for that 'too good to be true' golden trade that pops up.