If I review Bruce Fink's "A Clinical Introduction To Lacanian Psychoanalysis", will it get at least 125 likes?
Basic
56
Ṁ6399
resolved Apr 28
Resolved
YES
This is a conditional prediction market intended to help me determine what books to review. It resolves as positive if I post a review of "A Clinical Introduction To Lacanian Psychoanalysis" on ACX and get at least 125 Substack likes within one week of posting. It resolves as negative if I post the review and get fewer than 125 likes. If I don't review this book within a year, it resolves N/A. Close date updated to 2023-04-26 10:52 pm Close date updated to 2023-04-26 10:52 am Close date updated to 2022-04-26 11:59 pm
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I assume that people will Goodhart this like count, so I'm going towards YES here.
predictedYES
Why just waiting? The current like count is 74/125...
The review is posted: https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/book-review-a-clinical-introduction?s=r Now awaiting the final like count
Doubling down on NO. I similarly expect this market to be inflated, and I still don't think people understand that you can buy NO to get Scott to review other books.
I expect that all this book markets are overinflated by people not actually estimating probabilities.
out!!
cash
I
The new article posted by Scott should lower the price of this specific market.
I feel like it should be some trend adjusted measure of likes, or book review specific likes. As is I could see ACX/heart count just trending upward generally making all of these resolve to yes and not giving much signal re: which books people will actually like.
Scott, would you mind chucking in a link to your blog in your profile. Why do I ask? I wont lie there is a market about that: https://manifold.markets/Martin/will-scott-alexander-fill-in-his-pr
Although the probability is right, I reckon people will get bored hodling this one and pull their YES money out early for that 'too good to be true' golden trade that pops up.
Wagering my profit from day trading the other books on this one.

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