If I review Edward Teach's "Penelope's Dream Of Twenty Geese", will it get at least 125 likes?

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Ṁ3988

resolved Feb 28

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N/A

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This is a conditional prediction market intended to help me determine what books to review. It resolves as positive if I post a review of "Penelope's Dream Of Twenty Geese" on ACX and get at least 125 Substack likes within one week of posting. It resolves as negative if I post the review and get fewer than 125 likes. If I don't review this book within a year, it resolves N/A.

This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.

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It's a short book, you can get your review out in the next few hours.

Basically the same argument as Conflux here; people will like that post to drum up the market, and there aren't enough active Manifold participants for a NO campaign to work.

I feel like whatever book will be reviewed is going to be yes, because of Manifold yes bettors intentionally making sure it hits that many likes.

Buying NO based on Scott's latest post.

Sadly, Porn review currently at 107 likes.

Thanks, pulling that out. $5->$17 not bad :-)

Personally, I think a Nixonland review would be more interesting.

Ultra-suspicious, but I will jump into this shark tank with a small punt.

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