If I review Edward Teach's "Penelope's Dream Of Twenty Geese", will it get at least 125 likes?
ACX
52
380
Ṁ142
resolved Feb 28
Resolved
N/A
This is a conditional prediction market intended to help me determine what books to review. It resolves as positive if I post a review of "Penelope's Dream Of Twenty Geese" on ACX and get at least 125 Substack likes within one week of posting. It resolves as negative if I post the review and get fewer than 125 likes. If I don't review this book within a year, it resolves N/A.
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8 Comments
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bought Ṁ50 of YES

It's a short book, you can get your review out in the next few hours.

bought Ṁ30 of YES
Basically the same argument as Conflux here; people will like that post to drum up the market, and there aren't enough active Manifold participants for a NO campaign to work.
sold Ṁ12 of NO
I feel like whatever book will be reviewed is going to be yes, because of Manifold yes bettors intentionally making sure it hits that many likes.
bought Ṁ50 of NO
Buying NO based on Scott's latest post.
bought Ṁ100 of NO
Sadly, Porn review currently at 107 likes.
sold Ṁ17 of NO
Thanks, pulling that out. $5->$17 not bad :-)
bought Ṁ5 of NO
Personally, I think a Nixonland review would be more interesting.
bought Ṁ5 of NO
Ultra-suspicious, but I will jump into this shark tank with a small punt.

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