If I review Rick Perlstein's "Nixonland", will it get at least 125 likes?
ACX
48
371
Ṁ123
resolved Feb 28
Resolved
N/A
This is a conditional prediction market intended to help me determine what books to review. It resolves as positive if I post a review of "Nixonland" on ACX and get at least 125 Substack likes within one week of posting. It resolves as negative if I post the review and get fewer than 125 likes. If I don't review this book within a year, it resolves N/A.
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6 Comments
33 Holders
173 Trades
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predicted YES
This post on Nixon from 03/21 got 135 likes and reader numbers probably only went up from then. https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/richard-nixon-vs-cool?s=r Also the number of "yes" votes suggests up to 35 YES votes coming from bettors on this market.
predicted YES
Correction: 25 votes, I also counted people selling YES.
bought Ṁ20 of NO
I expect that all this book markets are overinflated by people not actually estimating probabilities.
bought Ṁ50 of NO
Buying NO based on Scott's latest post.
sold Ṁ8 of NO
In it for a quick profit. Thanks peeps.
bought Ṁ5 of YES
Personally, I think a Nixonland review would be interesting.

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