If I review Joseph Stiglitz's "Whither Socialism", will it get at least 125 likes?
ACX
34
35
Ṁ121
resolved Feb 28
Resolved
N/A
This is a conditional prediction market intended to help me determine what books to review. It resolves as positive if I post a review of "Whither Socialism" on ACX and get at least 125 Substack likes within one week of posting. It resolves as negative if I post the review and get fewer than 125 likes. If I don't review this book within a year, it resolves N/A.
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predicted NO
@Martin I think you were correct yes.
bought Ṁ20 of NO
I expect that all this book markets are overinflated by people not actually estimating probabilities.
bought Ṁ1 of YES
@SneakySly - based on Scott's latest post, as I read it, he is going to avoid reviewing books whose market would resolve to no. This means that ones likely to resolve NO will end up resolve N/A as per "If I don't review this book within a year, it resolves N/A.". This means basically as a group these book markets have a bias towards YES or N/A. Therefore a buy. Have I analyzed that wrong?
bought Ṁ50 of NO
Buying NO based on Scott's latest post.

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