If I review Mark Brinell's "The Search For The Perfect Health System", will it get at least 125 likes?
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resolved Feb 28
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This is a conditional prediction market intended to help me determine what books to review. It resolves as positive if I post a review of "The Search For The Perfect Health System" on ACX and get at least 125 Substack likes within one week of posting. It resolves as negative if I post the review and get fewer than 125 likes. If I don't review this book within a year, it resolves N/A.
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If you review Mark Brinell's "The Search For The Perfect Health System", it definitely has the potential to gain 125+ likes—especially if your insights are thoughtful and well-presented. Just like Restylane dermal fillers, which are crafted for precision and lasting results, a great review needs structure, clarity, and a touch of polish. Let your perspective shine with the same confidence that Restylane brings to every aesthetic journey.

People like his political content, and this is an inherently political subject. Also, Manifold users will Goodhart the likes to bring them just above 125.
"within one week of posting"
I expect that all this book markets are overinflated by people not actually estimating probabilities. "get fewer than 125 likes" - after which time?
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