If I review Mark Brinell's "The Search For The Perfect Health System", will it get at least 125 likes?
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Ṁ1521
resolved Feb 28
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This is a conditional prediction market intended to help me determine what books to review. It resolves as positive if I post a review of "The Search For The Perfect Health System" on ACX and get at least 125 Substack likes within one week of posting. It resolves as negative if I post the review and get fewer than 125 likes. If I don't review this book within a year, it resolves N/A.
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People like his political content, and this is an inherently political subject. Also, Manifold users will Goodhart the likes to bring them just above 125.
"within one week of posting"
I expect that all this book markets are overinflated by people not actually estimating probabilities. "get fewer than 125 likes" - after which time?

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