If I review Mark Brinell's "The Search For The Perfect Health System", will it get at least 125 likes?

ACX

443

Ṁ1.5K

Ṁ141

resolved Feb 28

Resolved

N/A

ALL

This is a conditional prediction market intended to help me determine what books to review. It resolves as positive if I post a review of "The Search For The Perfect Health System" on ACX and get at least 125 Substack likes within one week of posting. It resolves as negative if I post the review and get fewer than 125 likes. If I don't review this book within a year, it resolves N/A.

Get Ṁ200 play money

3 Comments

21 Holders

128 Trades

Sort by:

bought Ṁ50 of YES

People like his political content, and this is an inherently political subject. Also, Manifold users will Goodhart the likes to bring them just above 125.

bought Ṁ20 of NO

"within one week of posting"

bought Ṁ20 of YES

I expect that all this book markets are overinflated by people not actually estimating probabilities. "get fewer than 125 likes" - after which time?

34% chance

In 2028, will AI be at least as big a political issue as abortion?

44% chance

See more ACX questions

ACX questions

In early 2028, will an AI be able to generate a full high-quality movie to a prompt?

34% chance

In 2028, will AI be at least as big a political issue as abortion?

44% chance

Related questions

Related in ACX

More related questions

ACX questions

Related questions