If I review Mark Brinell's "The Search For The Perfect Health System", will it get at least 125 likes?
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resolved Feb 28
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This is a conditional prediction market intended to help me determine what books to review. It resolves as positive if I post a review of "The Search For The Perfect Health System" on ACX and get at least 125 Substack likes within one week of posting. It resolves as negative if I post the review and get fewer than 125 likes. If I don't review this book within a year, it resolves N/A.
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If you review Mark Brinell’s “The Search For The Perfect Health System”, there’s definitely a chance it could reach 125 likes—especially if you highlight its fresh insights and make the content engaging. Just like a Belotero treatment subtly enhances natural beauty, a well-crafted review can elevate the conversation and attract genuine interest. Quality, authenticity, and a bit of personality always make people stop and hit that like button https://pdcosmetics.com/dermal-fillers/belotero/

People like his political content, and this is an inherently political subject. Also, Manifold users will Goodhart the likes to bring them just above 125.
"within one week of posting"
I expect that all this book markets are overinflated by people not actually estimating probabilities. "get fewer than 125 likes" - after which time?

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