Resolves YES if a notorious Manifold user is found to have an active alt on Manifold by the end of 2026. Specific resolution criteria:

Here is the list of users that would count as "notorious":

• @_deleted_ (@firstuserhere, or any alts including @lastuserhere)

• @evan (or any GhostofEvan/SpiritofEvan account)

• @BTE (or any of his numerous alts)

• @PeterNjeim

• @klob

• @Krantz

• @levifinkelstein

• @MarkIngraham (and other markingraham accounts)

Here is the definition of an "active alt":

• Any account that a Manifold moderator claims to be owned by the same human who was behind one of the above users that has completed an action (comment, market, etc.) on Manifold after their main account was permanently banned, and did so in a way that the mods didn't know that they were connected to the original user.

Important clauses:

• If Manifold ceases to exist by end of 2026, resolves N/A.

• If 2026 ceases to exist, this market will resolve to whether the market would have resolved YES in 2026 C.E., otherwise, resolves to the complement of the current market price within a range of [0, 100].

• If I cease to exist by the end of 2026, @Geofry will be responsible for this market's resolution.

  • If @Geofry also ceases to exist by the end of 2026, @NotJeromeHPowell will be responsible for this market's resolution.

    • If all 3 of these users cease to exist by the end of 2026, the @mods 🤮 🤮 🤮 will not be responsible for this market's resolution. The mods shall run a vote among the world's greatest minds in the following fashion:

      • @Eliza will drive to @EliezerYudkowsky's house with a paper shredder, and tell him there is a special message from a deceased middle schooler on Manifold Markets. Eliza will ask Eliezer to weigh in on this market's resolution, and he will receive 100 votes to all assign to YES or NO.

      • @Stralor will drive to @RobinHanson's house with a staple remover, and tell him there is a 101-year-old man on Manifold Markets who wants him to weigh in on this market's resolution, and he will receive 10 votes to assign to YES or NO.

      • @SG will drive to @ScottAlexander's house with a wood stick with a paper that says "@realDonaldTrump was the best user on Manifold" stapled to it. SG will tell Scott there is a possessed demon on Manifold that wants him to weigh in on this market's resolution, and he will receive 1 vote to assign to YES or NO.

      • Then, @SG will meet @JamesGrugett under the Golden Gate Bridge, where James will confront Stephen about how he really needs to talk to @ian about not changing his middle name to "egg." Stephen will tell James about how telling Ian this will make him feel very uncomfortable, and Ian will realize this will be a terrible decision in time. But James knows that Ian will never realize this, and James realizes he will have to confront Ian about it himself.

      • But Ian will be tailing Eliza to recover the paper shredder he stole from him. So SG and James will climb to the surface of the bridge and hijack a police car, and meet Eliza, Pat, and Ian in front of Lighthaven.

      • James will park in the middle of the intersection as to make the others stop as well. He enters their cars with the obvious code of "6741" and will retrieve the sign, staple remover, and paper shredder.

      • James will remove the staples from the sign, and shred the paper that says I was the best Manifold user. Then, as James is out of the car and Ian's door is unlocked, SG will physically steal Ian's identity and go to city hall.

      • Once SG arrives at city hall with Ian's identity, he will file Ian's name change forms to make his middle name "SpelledEyeAyEnAndMyLastNameIs."

      • After Ian tackled James for misusing his paper shredder, SG will arrive back at the scene with Ian's identity and name change forms. Ian will proceed to frame SG for armed robbery of the paper shredder, whereas it was actually Eliza who stole it.

      • Then the corpse of rDJT will become the undead and notify @Austin of this chaos. Austin will be so mad he deletes Manifold, but not before resolving this market to 1,000,000%.

    • If all of the mods cease to exist by EOY 2026, the AGI that is in charge of the world will have to confront Sam Altman about this market's resolution. Sam Altman will befriend the AGI before coercing it into resolving this market to -1%, and have the AGI break Bayesian statistics. It will then leak rDJT's real identity and attribute him with being the world's best Bayesian statistician.

• If you need any more clauses about edge cases, please let me know and I will be willing to come up with a good answer.

• Update 2025-11-23 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): If the creator ceases to exist by the end of 2026 and @Geofry takes over resolution responsibility, Geofry must follow the elaborate resolution procedure outlined in the description to honor the creator's life/legacy.