This question resolves N/A if Ukraine does not retake Cherson in 2022.
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📢Resolved to YES : Proof "Liberation of Kherson" in 2022 , Putin still in power at end of 2023.
Through research on CNN reports Russia's official order to withdraw from Kherson's western half following a Moscow meeting, relinquishing valuable territory amid a robust Ukrainian counter offensive. With Russian forces yielding 40% of Kherson, the standoff along the Dnipro River now covers 250 kilometers. many news articles states that and mainly I found the recent article of Foreign Policy, there's speculation about Putin retaining power through 2023.
When 2022 ends and a bunch of things get resolved, the money supply on manifold increases, so the risk free rate decreases, so this will get a bump much faster than the usual time decay. Plus I think the actual likelihood is much less than 23%
Arbitrage with https://manifold.markets/ahalekelly/will-vladimir-putin-still-be-the-le (now that Cherson is taken).