Resolution criteria

This market resolves YES if Vladimir Putin dies by December 31, 2026. Resolution will be based on credible international news sources confirming his death, such as major news agencies (Reuters, AP, BBC, etc.). The market resolves NO if Putin remains alive through the end of 2026.

Background

Putin turned 73 in October 2025. For approximately 20 years, multiple sources have regularly reported that Putin is weeks or months away from death or medical incapacity, though U.S. intelligence officials have stated there is no evidence that Putin is seriously ill. While Putin is old for a Russian, even if he is fanatical about his health, he cannot continue indefinitely. Putin enjoys better healthcare than any of his predecessors thanks to advances in medical care.

Considerations

Under Putin's rule, Russia has become an authoritarian dictatorship with a personality cult, and Putin has not publicly groomed a successor, presumably because his personal authority would begin to ebb to them. Putin and his circle have not made any visible preparations for a post-Putin era, creating significant uncertainty about Russia's political stability should he die.