Will Putin remain in power if Crimea returns to Ukraine?
12
69
250
2030
28%
chance

If Ukraine gains control of Crimea and within next 365 days:

  • Putin remains the de facto leader of Russia: resolves YES;

  • Putin loses the position of de facto leader of Russia: resolves NO.

Resolves N/A: If Ukraine doesn't gain control of Crimea before close, or Putin loses power before close and before Ukraine gains control of Crimea.

For this market control of Crimea is idicated by having both of:

  • control of entrance to Crimean Bridge from peninsula side, unless it is already completely destroyed.

Edit: changed definition of control from "control of 90% of the territory" to the above.

Get Ṁ1,000 play money
Sort by:

Resolves N/A: If Ukraine doesn't gain control of Crimea before close, or Putin loses power before close and before Ukraine gains control of Crimea.

I mean, in case of Ukraine recapturing Crimea it won't be a surprise and it won't happen in a single day. So Putin can lose power before Ukraine recaptures Crimea, but after it'll be clear that it will happen.


Maybe reword to something like:
Resolves N/A: If Ukraine doesn't gain control of Crimea before close, or Putin loses power before close and at least 1 year before Ukraine gains control of Crimea.
Resolves NO: If Putin loses power and in the year following that Ukraine gains control of Crimea
"Ukraine gains control of Crimea" means Ukrainian government has full control of all territory of Crimean Peninsula (so doesn't need to take control of nearby islands)

@DmytroBulatov Hm, that's a good point. He may loose power because Russia loses Crimea but before this actually happen. But this is much harder to determine objectively.

Just allowing 1 year period before recapture is not ideal. In this case causation can be other way around actually.

I think I want to keep this question as is, even though it has this issue. But I'm open to suggestions on how to fix it.

I think it will help a bit if the question only require control of Sevastopol.


Does anyone object to change the requirement from "gains control of 90% of the territory" to "gains control of Sevastopol"?

bought Ṁ25 of NO

@roma it may be hard to control % of territory
Sevastopol is quite important but I'd say that controlling entrance to Crimean bridge from peninsula side would be better indication that Ukraine controls Crimea

predicts NO

@roma oh wait, I assumed that there will still be something there to control by that point

@DmytroBulatov Thanks for the suggestions! Made the edit.

(Didn't wait for potential objections because this doesn't seem like a big change, and there are no big trades yet)

More related questions