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resolved Jan 1
Resolved
YES

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Hate his guts, but it's almost 2024, so more than likely he's gonna stay leader

bought Ṁ10 of YES

No matter how many rumours surround Putin's health, mortality and his usage of nuclear weapons, I believe he will prevail all of them and prove it to the world that he is there for Russia

predicted YES

@AdhithyaV Exactly, he is there for Russia. Not for russians, he doesn't give a fuck about them

@AdhithyaV There is no data that supports your insight. The following can support the hypothesis that Putin can still be leader beyond 2023.

  • According to CNBC, since Putin has very little to none opposition, its very likely that he will win next term.

https://www.cnbc.com/2023/11/07/putin-looks-set-to-run-for-president-in-2024-and-theres-no-opposition.html

predicted YES

@CamilaHennessey Please stop using chatGPT on this site

predicted YES

@MatthewSakaluk Interesting. My only hesitation is that there's been lots of Putin health rumors in the past, and most were unsubstantiated.

predicted YES

@MatthewSakaluk Its amazing how the press works. "General SVR" is almost a parody anonymous blogger account in telegram, the essence of which is that he allegedly received 100% information from his "sources" at the very top of the Russian elites that Putin is dying, or is preparing to use nuclear weapons, or there will be a new mobilization. By the way, according to his information Putin should have died of cancer last year.And before the message about the heart attack, he also wrote that Xi Jinpin met Putin’s double.. Its amazing that on Sky this is presented as information from a reliable source.

bought Ṁ78 of YES

@MatthewSakaluk Мое сердце все еще бьется, Запад все еще истекает кровью ❤

boughtṀ233YES

@AltPutin If one were to insider trade on this market, I'd have thought NO would be more profitable.

500 traders, Vlad! So much liquidity. Think of the mana!

bought Ṁ10 of YES

Please forgive the self-promotion (or just delete this comment if it bothers you), but I believe this is close enough to be of interest to those who have bet on this market:

https://manifold.markets/AlexandreK/will-vladimir-putin-stop-being-pres

@firstuserhere market prices Vladimir Putin to be alive at 92% but expects him to be the leader of Russia at 96%. Quick, someone set up an arb bot over this.

bought Ṁ1,000 of YES

@firstuserhere 2023 vs 2024 though

@42irrationalist oops, misread.

Кто еще? Откуда путаница в том, что этот ответ не может быть стопроцентным? 🤣

These markets tend to be undervalued, but I think there are real reasons to be worried about Putin. Prigozin seems to be preparing for a post-Putin Russia. Ukrainian intelligence says he's sick. And Putin's extreme Covid cautiousness raises questions. I still put at 80% though.

A similar market

bought Ṁ89 of YES

Remarkably flat for the last 4 months even though it should be showing significant time decay

predicted NO

@JonathanRay Why? He isn't up for reelection until early 2024. Unless you believe he is dying, which is not impossible, it should be flat right here or probably 10 points higher.

predicted YES

@BTE He could have died or been couped earlier this year, but he didn't, so we should have updated the probability lower on that evidence.

predicted YES

@JonathanRay I mean higher

predicted NO

@JonathanRay I agree.

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