Will Vladimir Putin still be the leader of Russia at the end of 2023?
86%
chance

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DouglasCampbell avatar

These markets tend to be undervalued, but I think there are real reasons to be worried about Putin. Prigozin seems to be preparing for a post-Putin Russia. Ukrainian intelligence says he's sick. And Putin's extreme Covid cautiousness raises questions. I still put at 80% though.

mndrix avatar

A similar market

JonathanRay avatar
Jonathan Ray
bought Ṁ89 of YES

Remarkably flat for the last 4 months even though it should be showing significant time decay

BTE avatar
BTE
is predicting NO at 78%

@JonathanRay Why? He isn't up for reelection until early 2024. Unless you believe he is dying, which is not impossible, it should be flat right here or probably 10 points higher.

JonathanRay avatar
Jonathan Ray
is predicting YES at 78%

@BTE He could have died or been couped earlier this year, but he didn't, so we should have updated the probability lower on that evidence.

JonathanRay avatar
Jonathan Ray
is predicting YES at 78%

@JonathanRay I mean higher

BTE avatar
BTE
is predicting NO at 78%

@JonathanRay I agree.

TomekKolotom avatar
Komet T
is predicting YES at 85%



there are already such markets

ahalekelly avatar
Adrian
is predicting YES at 78%

@TomekKolotom yes this is a Dec 31, 2023 version, I couldn't find one