Will Vladimir Putin still be the leader of Russia at the end of 2023?
Jan 1

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AdhithyaV avatar
Adhithya Vbought Ṁ10 of YES

No matter how many rumours surround Putin's health, mortality and his usage of nuclear weapons, I believe he will prevail all of them and prove it to the world that he is there for Russia

Sanargama avatar
Sanargamapredicts YES

@AdhithyaV Exactly, he is there for Russia. Not for russians, he doesn't give a fuck about them

CamilaHennessey avatar
Camila Hennessey

@AdhithyaV There is no data that supports your insight. The following can support the hypothesis that Putin can still be leader beyond 2023.

  • According to CNBC, since Putin has very little to none opposition, its very likely that he will win next term.


Paul avatar
Paulpredicts YES

@CamilaHennessey Please stop using chatGPT on this site

DouglasCampbell avatar
Douglas Campbellpredicts YES

@MatthewSakaluk Interesting. My only hesitation is that there's been lots of Putin health rumors in the past, and most were unsubstantiated.

55c7 avatar
Алексейpredicts YES

@MatthewSakaluk Its amazing how the press works. "General SVR" is almost a parody anonymous blogger account in telegram, the essence of which is that he allegedly received 100% information from his "sources" at the very top of the Russian elites that Putin is dying, or is preparing to use nuclear weapons, or there will be a new mobilization. By the way, according to his information Putin should have died of cancer last year.And before the message about the heart attack, he also wrote that Xi Jinpin met Putin’s double.. Its amazing that on Sky this is presented as information from a reliable source.

AltPutin avatar
Владимир Путин (пародия)bought Ṁ78 of YES

@MatthewSakaluk Мое сердце все еще бьется, Запад все еще истекает кровью ❤

chrisjbillington avatar
Chris Billington

@AltPutin If one were to insider trade on this market, I'd have thought NO would be more profitable.

500 traders, Vlad! So much liquidity. Think of the mana!

AlexandreK avatar
Alexandre Kbought Ṁ10 of YES

Please forgive the self-promotion (or just delete this comment if it bothers you), but I believe this is close enough to be of interest to those who have bet on this market:


firstuserhere avatar
firstuserhere avatar

@firstuserhere market prices Vladimir Putin to be alive at 92% but expects him to be the leader of Russia at 96%. Quick, someone set up an arb bot over this.

42irrationalist avatar
42irrationalistbought Ṁ1,000 of YES

@firstuserhere 2023 vs 2024 though

firstuserhere avatar

@42irrationalist oops, misread.

AltPutin avatar

Кто еще? Откуда путаница в том, что этот ответ не может быть стопроцентным? 🤣

DouglasCampbell avatar
Douglas Campbell

These markets tend to be undervalued, but I think there are real reasons to be worried about Putin. Prigozin seems to be preparing for a post-Putin Russia. Ukrainian intelligence says he's sick. And Putin's extreme Covid cautiousness raises questions. I still put at 80% though.

mndrix avatar
Michael Hendricks

A similar market

JonathanRay avatar
Jonathan Raybought Ṁ89 of YES

Remarkably flat for the last 4 months even though it should be showing significant time decay

BTE avatar
Brian T. Edwardspredicts NO

@JonathanRay Why? He isn't up for reelection until early 2024. Unless you believe he is dying, which is not impossible, it should be flat right here or probably 10 points higher.

JonathanRay avatar
Jonathan Raypredicts YES

@BTE He could have died or been couped earlier this year, but he didn't, so we should have updated the probability lower on that evidence.

JonathanRay avatar
Jonathan Raypredicts YES

@JonathanRay I mean higher

BTE avatar
Brian T. Edwardspredicts NO

@JonathanRay I agree.