This market has it at 93% by June. https://insightprediction.com/m/120503/will-vladimir-putin-be-president-of-russia-on-june-30th-2023
These markets tend to be undervalued, but I think there are real reasons to be worried about Putin. Prigozin seems to be preparing for a post-Putin Russia. Ukrainian intelligence says he's sick. And Putin's extreme Covid cautiousness raises questions. I still put at 80% though.
Remarkably flat for the last 4 months even though it should be showing significant time decay
@JonathanRay Why? He isn't up for reelection until early 2024. Unless you believe he is dying, which is not impossible, it should be flat right here or probably 10 points higher.
@BTE He could have died or been couped earlier this year, but he didn't, so we should have updated the probability lower on that evidence.
