[unlinked free response] How can Israel stop Hamas from controlling Gaza before 2030?
6
144
Ṁ130Ṁ200
2030
1D
1W
1M
ALL
89%
Long-term total occupation of Gaza by ground troops; overseeing new elections; enforcement of a ban on Hamas membership/speech/symbols/publications ala the denazification of Germany.
41%
Any policy
33%
Any policy not involving extensive ground troop occupation of Gaza
31%
Long-term refusal to supply food/water/energy
Each option describes a policy and resolves N/A if Israel does not implement the policy. The option resolves YES if Israel implements the policy and Hamas does not control Gaza in Jan 2030. Resolves NO if Israel implements the policy and Hamas still rules Gaza in Jan 2030. Multiple options can resolve YES. "Any policy" represents the unconditional probability of Hamas not controlling Gaza in Jan 2030.
Semicolons in the options represent AND.
Get Ṁ200 play money
Sort by:
"Any policy" seems underpriced relative to https://manifold.markets/BenjaminIkuta/will-hamas-as-a-military-organizati
@JonathanRay Or not, they’re probably already maxed out on antisemitism and and recruiting kids to murder people
Related questions
Will Hamas still control Gaza at the end of 2024?
63% chance
Will Gaza be de facto controled by Israel at the end of 2024?
41% chance
By 2025, will Israel claim that Hamas is no longer active in the Gaza Strip?
41% chance
Will Hamas control more than one square kilometer of contiguous territory in Gaza at the end of June 2024?
75% chance
Will Israel win the 2023 Israel–Hamas war?
64% chance
Will the blockade on Gaza end before 2026?
49% chance
Will Hamas control more than one square kilometer of contiguous territory in Gaza at the end of 2024?
20% chance
Will the Palestinian Authority take over Gaza deposing Hamas by the end of September 2024 ?
29% chance
Will Hamas control >50% of Gaza at the end of 2024?
26% chance
Will Hamas be eradicated by 2025?
13% chance