[unlinked free response] How can Israel stop Hamas from controlling Gaza before 2030?
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Ṁ1292030
1D
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89%
Long-term total occupation of Gaza by ground troops; overseeing new elections; enforcement of a ban on Hamas membership/speech/symbols/publications ala the denazification of Germany.
41%
Any policy
33%
Any policy not involving extensive ground troop occupation of Gaza
31%
Long-term refusal to supply food/water/energy
Each option describes a policy and resolves N/A if Israel does not implement the policy. The option resolves YES if Israel implements the policy and Hamas does not control Gaza in Jan 2030. Resolves NO if Israel implements the policy and Hamas still rules Gaza in Jan 2030. Multiple options can resolve YES. "Any policy" represents the unconditional probability of Hamas not controlling Gaza in Jan 2030.
Semicolons in the options represent AND.
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"Any policy" seems underpriced relative to https://manifold.markets/BenjaminIkuta/will-hamas-as-a-military-organizati
@JonathanRay Or not, they’re probably already maxed out on antisemitism and and recruiting kids to murder people
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