Resolution criteria

This market resolves to YES if the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) or a consensus of major intelligence agencies (such as the U.S. Office of the Director of National Intelligence) officially confirms that Iran has successfully produced, tested, or acquired a fully functional nuclear weapon on or before December 31, 2027.

If no such confirmation is made by this date, or if international authorities determine that Iran has not achieved this capability, the market resolves to NO. In the event of conflicting official reports, the market will resolve based on the assessment provided by the IAEA.

Background

Iran’s nuclear program has been a subject of intense international scrutiny for decades. Since the 2018 U.S. withdrawal from the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), Iran has progressively increased its uranium enrichment levels. While the Iranian government maintains that its nuclear activities are exclusively for peaceful energy and research purposes, Western nations and the IAEA have expressed ongoing concerns regarding the lack of transparency and the accumulation of highly enriched uranium, which technically reduces the "breakout time" required to produce weapon-grade material. Current international intelligence assessments remain the primary indicators for tracking Iran's progress toward potential weaponization.

This description was generated by AI.