Resolves YES if the Islamic Republic of Iran obtains a nuclear weapon before it collapses, according to reliable media outlets. Resolves NO otherwise. I will not bet on this market. Update 2025-02-11 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Weapon Resolution Clarification: Dirty bomb does not count as a nuclear weapon. Refer to the linked example for further context: Metaculus page Update 2025-05-18 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The standard for Iran 'obtaining a nuclear weapon' is further clarified: Iran's status must be comparable to that of the existing, recognized nuclear weapon states. This implies a level of capability and general acknowledgement (as reported by reliable media outlets) similar to countries such as: United States Russia China France United Kingdom India Pakistan Israel North Korea

Unlikely — Manifold Markets prediction market estimates a 14% chance (33 traders, as of Mar 5, 2026).

Will Iran get a nuclear weapon before the Islamic Republic falls?

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14%

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Resolves YES if the Islamic Republic of Iran obtains a nuclear weapon before it collapses, according to reliable media outlets. Resolves NO otherwise. I will not bet on this market.

Update 2025-02-11 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Weapon Resolution Clarification:
- Dirty bomb does not count as a nuclear weapon.
- Refer to the linked example for further context: Metaculus page

Update 2025-05-18 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The standard for Iran 'obtaining a nuclear weapon' is further clarified:
- Iran's status must be comparable to that of the existing, recognized nuclear weapon states.
- This implies a level of capability and general acknowledgement (as reported by reliable media outlets) similar to countries such as:
- United States
- Russia
- China
- France
- United Kingdom
- India
- Pakistan
- Israel
- North Korea

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bought Ṁ5 YES

I feel like I'm getting pre emptively semantically sniped out from under a yes but am voting yes anyways out of belligerence. The word yes should mean what I want it to mean because my categories are correct, and a conspicuous loss bakes the objection in where allowing myself to vacillate would just give permission to these things to continue.

No new trades?

"Weapon" being what exactly?

Would an announcement of a warhead core suffice?..

An assembled warhead?

A complete ready-to-fire installation?

@ICRainbow Something like https://www.metaculus.com/c/future-perfect/31123/will-iran-possess-a-nuclear-weapon-before-2026/ ... a dirty bomb would not count.

Will Iran possess a nuclear weapon before 2026?

@ICRainbow When I google "how many states have nuclear weapons" right now I get:

"Nine countries are known to possess nuclear weapons: the United States, Russia, China, France, the United Kingdom, India, Pakistan, Israel, and North Korea."

Wikipedia has an article.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_states_with_nuclear_weapons#:~:text=Nine%20sovereign%20states%20are%20generally,eight%20formally%20acknowledge%20possessing%20them.