Will Iran get a nuclear weapon before the Islamic Republic falls?
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Resolves YES if the Islamic Republic of Iran obtains a nuclear weapon before it collapses, according to reliable media outlets. Resolves NO otherwise. I will not bet on this market.
Update 2025-02-11 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Weapon Resolution Clarification:
Dirty bomb does not count as a nuclear weapon.
Refer to the linked example for further context: Metaculus page
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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@ICRainbow Something like https://www.metaculus.com/c/future-perfect/31123/will-iran-possess-a-nuclear-weapon-before-2026/ ... a dirty bomb would not count.
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