Background The International Court of Justice (ICJ) is currently hearing South Africa's case against Israel regarding alleged violations of the Genocide Convention in Gaza. On January 26, 2024, the ICJ issued provisional measures. However, this preliminary ruling does not constitute a final determination on whether Israel has breached the Convention.
Resolution Criteria This market will resolve YES if the ICJ issues a final judgment finding that Israel has breached any provision of the Genocide Convention in relation to its actions in Gaza. It will resolve NO if the ICJ either:
Issues a final judgment finding that Israel has not breached the Convention
Dismisses the case on jurisdictional or other grounds
Or determines the case is inadmissible
The market will remain UNRESOLVED until the ICJ issues its final judgment on the merits of the case.
Considerations
ICJ cases typically take several years to reach a final judgment
The ICJ found Serbia to be in breach of the Genocide Convention https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bosnian_genocide_case but found that Serbia did NOT commit genocide, so this is not the same as https://manifold.markets/Shump/will-the-icj-determine-that-israel . It's somewhere in between that one and https://manifold.markets/Shump/will-the-icj-determine-that-israel-91cbadfcbadb .
Again, this market CAN RESOLVE YES EVEN IF THE ICJ DETERMINES ISRAEL IS NOT COMMITTING GENOCIDE
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