Background The International Court of Justice (ICJ) is currently hearing South Africa's case against Israel regarding alleged violations of the Genocide Convention in Gaza. On January 26, 2024, the ICJ issued provisional measures. However, this preliminary ruling does not constitute a final determination on whether Israel has breached the Convention.
Resolution Criteria This market will resolve YES if the ICJ issues a final judgment finding that Israel has breached any provision of the Genocide Convention in relation to its actions in Gaza. It will resolve NO if the ICJ either:
Issues a final judgment finding that Israel has not breached the Convention
Dismisses the case on jurisdictional or other grounds
Or determines the case is inadmissible
The market will remain UNRESOLVED until the ICJ issues its final judgment on the merits of the case.
Considerations
ICJ cases typically take several years to reach a final judgment
The ICJ found Serbia to be in breach of the Genocide Convention https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bosnian_genocide_case but found that Serbia did NOT commit genocide, so this is not the same as https://manifold.markets/Shump/will-the-icj-determine-that-israel . It's somewhere in between that one and https://manifold.markets/Shump/will-the-icj-determine-that-israel-91cbadfcbadb .
Again, this market CAN RESOLVE YES EVEN IF THE ICJ DETERMINES ISRAEL IS NOT COMMITTING GENOCIDE
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Unfortunately I think this is pretty likely to resolve yes.
The ICJ did give Israel a warning about preventing this and that. I think the most likely path to a NO resolution is that Israel opens some probes.
@nathanwei On the other hand, the Attorney General did look at the statements for 10 months
"On January 9, three days before the first hearing for South Africa’s suit, the Attorney General’s Office said that law enforcement agencies had opened “examinations” into several of the problematic comments made by Israeli officials.
According to the Attorney General’s Office, however, a decision not to open criminal investigations was made on November 18."
They told something to the ICJ about how they were not genocidal. Or at least, not worthy of a criminal investigation. I think that makes sense, the ICJ said they were dehumanizing and inciting but not genocidal. So given that the Attorney General examined these things it might be good enough.
I think 20/40/40 is probably about right, 20% that they say Israel is committing genocide, and if they don't, 50-50 on the Convention.
@nathanwei Hmm looking at Wikipedia, in the Rwanda case the ICJ appeared to have the interpretation that "incitement to genocide" has to be connected to actual genocide or acts of genocide to count as a violation.
UN Report Accuses Israel of Systematically Using Sexual and Gender-Based Violence as a Weapon of War Against Palestinians. Some key take aways as summarized by Drop Site News:
Weaponized Sexual Violence and State-Sanctioned Brutality
Direct Orders and Climate of Impunity
Destruction of Reproductive Healthcare as a Tool of Genocide
Murder of Women and Girls
Intentional Strategy to Undermine Palestinian Survival
Sources:https://x.com/DropSiteNews/status/1900196535318515769
@Samaritan Seems like a flimsy case by a biased institition. This is not the ICJ.
If this resolves as yes it’s because of retard statements by Vaturi, Smotrich, Ben Gvir.
Perhaps I should make a new market
The Genocide Convention bans:
(a) Genocide;
(b) Conspiracy to commit genocide;
(c) Direct and public incitement to commit genocide;
(d) Attempt to commit genocide;
I think that Israel will not be found guilty of (a), (b), (d), (e) but clause (c) is trickier, since if Israel doesn't do enough to prevent Kahanists from loudly calling for actual genocide in public then maybe it's in violation of its obligations under the Convention. I am not an international lawyer but I talked to one and this was the impression I got.
Will Israel attempting to starve all Palestinians in Gaza (again) effect the ICJ ruling? context: https://x.com/DropSiteNews/status/1896227890498277473
It's crazy how Israel violated the ceasefire over 270 times and is still pretending they are in the right here.
Also here's a video about the recent embarrassing proposal from Trump that Israel says they back: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PPiZLXI1sWs
It's funny how bad hasbara (Israel's propaganda) is that they let this happen: https://x.com/jeremyscahill/status/1896227020784427274
@Samaritan Senior Hamas officials lie all of the time.
Israel is not attempting to starve all Palestinians in Gaza, no way that will happen, the Free Beacon reported that they will continue humanitarian aid to the humanitarian zones: https://freebeacon.com/israel/exclusive-israel-to-resume-war-in-gaza-and-eradicate-hamas-cutting-off-aid-and-bombarding-strip-with-troops/
There is no special intent to do anything other than destroy Hamas.
I don't think that the Genocide Convention even covers the use of starvation as a weapon of war. And it's not even really starvation, just trying to prevent Hamas from hoarding the food.
@nathanwei In the free beacon it says that humanitarian aid to humanitarian zones is suppose to happen with the next offensive that it reports will start in 4 to 6 weeks. That means 4 to 6 weeks with no aid. Assuming the free beacon's sources are reliable.
The blocking of all aid is happening now and is even backed up by Egypt where a lot of the aid is coming from. Here's some sources for you:
The times of israel - https://www.timesofisrael.com/israel-halts-aid-into-gaza-over-hamas-refusal-to-extend-first-phase-of-truce/
Al-jazeera - https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2025/3/2/israel-reneges-on-ceasefire-deal-warns-hamas-of-consequences
Also just take a look at Israeli politician's own tweets if you want more sources.
If mass starvation wont play a role in the ruling in the genocide convention, maybe we're not reading the same thing. Even your own source takes it a step further and end swith the following quotes:
"Removing the people of Gaza is the only solution that can really change the reality and create a better life for everybody," Tal said. "So everything we are doing in Gaza should serve that goal."
Here's a refresher of article 2 of the Convention which defines genocide as:
... any of the following acts committed with intent to destroy, in whole or in part, a national, ethnical, racial or religious group, as such killing members of the group, causing serious bodily or mental harm to members of the group, deliberately inflicting on the group conditions of life calculated to bring about its physical destruction in whole or in part, imposing measures intended to prevent births within the group, or forcibly transferring children of the group to another group.
@Samaritan Even if the intent is explicitly to send all of the Gazans to Egypt, that does not count as the intent to "destroy, in whole or in part, a ... group". For example if the Nazis had starved the Jews that remained in Poland but let many flee to Russia, and encouraged them to flee to Russia, this would not have been genocide.
Indeed I was wrong to say that "mass starvation does not play a role". Killing members of the group also plays a role in the genocide convention, no one disputes that Israel is doing that. Again it's not so much the action as the intent behind the action. The intent has to be to destroy the Palestinian people. Not to send them to Egypt. To destroy them. That's not Israel's intent.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Genocidal_intent#Definition_and_legal_standards
"Intention to destroy the group's culture or intending to scatter the group does not suffice."
The lack of genocidal intent is really the core fatal weakness of the case. Even the Kahanist far-right just talks about kicking out the Palestinians, turning them into normal Arabs, and having them assimilate into some Arab country. And of course Netanyahu is much more moderate than those and he is the one actually calling the shots.
@nathanwei solid points, but this is where technicality becomes the issue for me. Assuming in your Nazi starving jews in Poland example, those who could flee to a humanitarian zone in Russia, but heard stories of people being killed on the way by the Nazis (and seen it), and even the humanitarian zone also having been bombed previously by the Nazis, might choose to stay. If they starve, because they're being starved by the Nazis, would that not count as genocide? Sincerely asking because this is the technicality I have a problem with. It just sounds like Genocide with extra steps and ethnic cleansing on the side.
You're wrong about the craziest of Israel's government only talking about kicking Palestinians off their ancestral homeland, they have and continue to call for the extermination of Palestinians, just less often. For example, recently the Speaker of Israel’s Parliament (same party as the prime minister, not an ultra-right wing party) said the following:
“Who is innocent in Gaza? Civilians went out and slaughtered people in cold blood … We need to separate the children and women and kill the adults in Gaza, we are being too considerate,” Vaturi said.
“We will soon turn Jenin into Gaza," he said, adding that the Palestinian captives released under the Gaza ceasefire deal should be sent there so they can be "eliminated" by Israeli forces. “Erase Jenin. Don’t start looking for the terrorists ... if there's a terrorist in a house, take it out."
https://x.com/DropSiteNews/status/1894051556502188436
Israel is getting good again at not saying the bad parts out loud though but they still hint at it often. Here's their prime minister saying that starving the population is just the start and there will be more collective punishment: https://x.com/DropSiteNews/status/1896096959393644695
Cutting off water supplies is being discussed now: https://x.com/DropSiteNews/status/1896278704097267888
@Samaritan Replied on the other thread
https://manifold.markets/Shump/will-the-icj-determine-that-israel#lnyohyves1
REMEMBER, THIS MARKET CAN RESOLVE YES EVEN IF THE ICJ DETERMINES ISRAEL IS NOT COMMITTING GENOCIDE. IT IS NOT THE SAME AS THIS MARKET: https://manifold.markets/Shump/will-the-icj-determine-that-israel