Resolution criteria

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the International Court of Justice (ICJ) issues a final judgment by December 31, 2025, finding that the Russian Federation has breached its obligations under the Convention on the Prevention and Punishment of the Crime of Genocide (Genocide Convention). The official judgment must be publicly accessible on the ICJ's website. If no such judgment is issued by the specified date, the market will resolve to "No".

Background

The Genocide Convention, adopted in 1948, defines genocide and obligates signatory states to prevent and punish genocide, acts of genocide, incitement to genocide, and so on.

Ukraine initiated proceedings against Russia at the ICJ after the Russian invasion of Ukraine. The ICJ has jurisdiction over disputes concerning the interpretation and application of the Genocide Convention. (icj-cij.org)

Considerations

This question will resolve YES if the ICJ finds that Russia was in breach of its obligations under the Genocide Convention. Note that this is different than the question of whether or not Russia committed genocide. In particular, in Serbia vs Croatia, the ICJ ruled that Serbia was in breach of the Genocide Convention but that it did not commit genocide. See https://manifold.markets/nathanwei/will-the-icj-determine-that-russia for a question about if Russia committed genocide.