The International Court of Justice (ICJ) is currently deliberating on the case brought by The Gambia against Myanmar, alleging genocide against the Rohingya people. This market resolves to "Yes" if the ICJ issues a ruling determining that Myanmar violated the Genocide Convention in this case, and "No" otherwise.

This question does NOT ask if the court will find that Myanmar actually committed genocide, just whether or not it violated the Convention. See https://manifold.markets/nathanwei/icj-determines-myanmar-committed-ge?play=true for a market on that.

Will the ICJ determine that Myanmar committed genocide?

45% chance. The International Court of Justice (ICJ) is currently deliberating on the case brought by The Gambia against Myanmar, alleging genocide against the Rohingya people. This market resolves to "Yes" if the ICJ issues a ruling determining that Myanmar committed genocide against the Rohingya, and "No" otherwise. In order for this question to resolve yes, the ICJ needs to rule that Myanmar committed genocide. A ruling that Myanmar breached the Genocide Convention or even that its forces committed acts of genocide (as in the Croatia vs Serbia) does not count.

• Update 2025-05-31 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator has specified the following details for resolution:

  • The market will resolve based on the ICJ's final judgment on the merits in The Gambia v. Myanmar case. Provisional measures, preliminary objections, or other interim rulings will not be considered.

  • Resolves YES if this final judgment finds Myanmar breached any obligation under the Genocide Convention.

  • Resolves NO if this final judgment finds no breach of the Convention by Myanmar, or if the case is dismissed for other reasons before a judgment on the merits regarding Convention breaches.

  • Resolves N/A if the case is withdrawn by The Gambia or otherwise discontinued before such a final judgment on the merits.