Resolution criteria

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the International Court of Justice (ICJ) issues a final, legally binding judgment determining that the Russian Federation committed genocide, as defined by the 1948 Convention on the Prevention and Punishment of the Crime of Genocide. The resolution will be based on official ICJ publications or reputable news sources reporting on the ICJ's final decision. If no such determination is made by the ICJ, the market will resolve to "No."

Background

The Genocide Convention, adopted in 1948, defines genocide and obligates signatory states to prevent and punish genocide, acts of genocide, incitement to genocide, and so on.

Ukraine initiated proceedings against Russia at the ICJ after the Russian invasion of Ukraine. The ICJ has jurisdiction over disputes concerning the interpretation and application of the Genocide Convention. (icj-cij.org)

Considerations

This market will resolve yes if the ICJ finds Russia committed genocide. Violating the Convention and even a Serbia-type verdict will not suffice. The Russian state needs to be found to have actually committed genocide. Acts of genocide committed by the Russian forces are not enough for a resolution. See https://manifold.markets/nathanwei/will-the-icj-find-russia-in-breach?play=true for a broader question.