Resolution criteria

This market will resolve to "Yes" if, at any point between the market's creation date and June 30, 2026, there is a widely reported and sustained resumption of significant military hostilities between Hamas (or other major Palestinian militant groups operating from Gaza) and Israel. This will be evidenced by any of the following:

• A documented and sustained military operation by the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) in the Gaza Strip, involving ground incursions, significant aerial bombardments, or naval shelling, leading to at least 50 reported fatalities (combatant or civilian) within Gaza over a 72-hour period. These fatalities must be reported by either the Gaza Health Ministry or Israel, with coverage by at least two major international news organizations (e.g., Reuters, Associated Press, BBC, The New York Times).

• A documented and sustained campaign of rocket or missile attacks by Hamas or other Palestinian militant groups originating from the Gaza Strip targeting Israel, resulting in at least 10 alarms from more than one projectile within Israel over a 72-hour period. Exception: Hamas denounces the attack and punishes the responsible.

• An official declaration by the Israeli government or the Israel Defense Forces of a new "military operation," "war," or "campaign" against Hamas or other militant groups in the Gaza Strip, widely reported by major international news outlets, signifying a departure from any prior ceasefire or period of reduced hostilities.

Isolated skirmishes, targeted arrests, or minor exchanges of fire that do not meet the above thresholds will not be considered a resumption of hostilities for the purpose of this market.

The market will resolve to "No" if none of the above conditions are met by June 30, 2026.

Sources for resolution will prioritize official statements from the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) or Israeli government, the Hamas-run Ministry of Health in Gaza, and reports from established international news agencies.

Background

The current major phase of the Hamas-Israel conflict began on October 7, 2023, when Hamas launched a large-scale attack on Israel, prompting Israel to declare war and initiate extensive military operations in the Gaza Strip. Since then, the conflict has seen significant casualties, widespread destruction, and a humanitarian crisis in Gaza. There have been various periods of intense fighting interspersed with temporary ceasefires and humanitarian pauses, followed by renewed offensives. As of the current time, a ceasefire agreement is noted, following a series of predicted events up to October 2025, which included offensives and further ceasefire agreements.

Considerations

The term "resumption of hostilities" requires a clear definition given the fluctuating nature of the conflict. The criteria outlined above aim to distinguish between ongoing, low-level friction and a significant escalation or renewal of full-scale conflict.