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MANIFOLD
When will Wikipedia refer to Hamas in the past tense?
16
แน€1kแน€4.6k
2028
1%
2023
1%
H1 2024
0.9%
H2 2024
0.9%
H1 2025
1%
H2 2025
11%
2026
15%
2027
70%
Not before 2028

Resolves to the date on which the Wikipedia article on Hamas, rather than starting with "Hamas [etc etc] is", as it currently does, instead starts with "Hamas [etc etc] was", and I am satisfied that this is not vandalism or part of an edit war.

I'll wait one month to ensure it isn't reverted, then the market will resolve to the date, in UTC, on which the change was made.

This one month period is a necessary but not sufficient criterion for resolution - I still need to be satisfied that it is a deliberate and permanent change, which may require judgement.

Resolves N/A if the Wikipedia article on Hamas ceases to exist before referring to Hamas in the past tense.

  • Update 2026-07-16 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Regarding article renaming or merging:

    • A renamed article counts for resolution purposes

    • A merged article will result in an N/A resolution if it's not reasonably possible to resolve in the spirit of the market

    • Exception: if a merge results in a section on Hamas that is essentially a full article, resolution will be based on that section

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What if the article is renamed or merged or something?

@benjaminIkuta A renamed article counts. A merge I'll make a judgement call and NA if it's not reasonably possible to resolve in the spirit of this market. If e.g. a merge straightforwardly results in a section on Hamas that's basically an article, I'll resolve based on that.

I assume You will not be gamed by somebody vandalizing it once a month...?

@JussiVilleHeiskanen

I still need to be satisfied that it is a deliberate and permanent change, which may require judgement.

I don't think I'm easily fooled enough for this to be a problem, if it's getting reverted then that should be easily noticeable.