Resolution criteria

The Israel-Gaza conflict will be considered "ended" in the calendar year that both of the following conditions are met:

1. Sustained Cessation of Significant Hostilities: A continuous period of at least 12 consecutive months passes with no more than 10 fatalities directly attributed to military actions by the Israel Defense Forces in Gaza, or to rocket, mortar, or other hostile attacks originating from Gaza into Israel. This threshold indicates a de facto cessation of active conflict. Data for this will be primarily sourced from the United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA) reports (e.g., https://www.ochaopt.org/), reputable human rights organizations such as B'Tselem (https://www.btselem.org/) or Amnesty International (https://www.amnesty.org/en/location/middle-east-and-north-africa/israel-and-occupied-palestinian-territories/), and corroborated by at least two major international news agencies (e.g., Associated Press, Reuters, BBC News).

2. Absence of Major Military Operations/Offensives: During the same 12-month period as defined in (1), there are no major military ground offensives or widespread aerial bombing campaigns conducted by the Israel Defense Forces in the Gaza Strip, and no large-scale coordinated attacks (e.g., cross-border incursions by armed groups) originating from Gaza into Israel. This will be assessed based on reports from major international news agencies and official statements from involved parties.

The market will resolve to the specific calendar year (2025, 2026, 2027, 2028, 2029, or 2030) in which both conditions are met. If these conditions are met in 2031 or any year thereafter, the market resolves to "2031 or later". If, by December 31, 2035, the conditions for an "end" (as defined above) have not been met, and the conflict continues to be characterized by active hostilities exceeding the defined fatality threshold or involving major military operations/offensives, the market resolves to "Never/ongoing indefinitely".

Background

The current phase of the Israel-Gaza conflict commenced with a large-scale attack by Hamas on Israel on October 7, 2023, followed by a significant military response by Israel in the Gaza Strip. This conflict is an intensive episode within the broader, protracted Israeli-Palestinian conflict, which has historical roots spanning over a century. Prior major conflicts between Israel and Hamas in Gaza have occurred in 2008, 2012, 2014, and 2021. The ongoing hostilities have resulted in substantial casualties and a severe humanitarian crisis in Gaza. Efforts to mediate ceasefires have typically led to temporary pauses in fighting, with hostilities often resuming.

Considerations

The concept of a conflict "ending" can be ambiguous, particularly in long-standing, asymmetric conflicts that may not conclude with formal declarations of war or traditional peace treaties. This market's resolution criteria focus on objective, verifiable indicators of a sustained cessation of significant hostilities and military operations, rather than requiring a formal political agreement. International law recognizes that conflicts can end de facto without a peace treaty, based on factual evidence on the ground.