Will the worldwide electric car adoption curve reach it's steepest point by 2030? | Manifold

Will the worldwide electric car adoption curve reach it's steepest point by 2030?

14

1kṀ390

2040

82%

chance

1H

6H

1D

1W

1M

ALL

The goal is to predict when the adoption S-curve of share of electric car sales will reach its steepest point. This will be based on the data provided by OurWorldInData. The current graph is shown below:

The steepest point is currently 2020-2021 (9% - 4%) = 5%. 2021-2022 has achieved the same steepness. The final change that will be included in the resolution is 2029-2030. If this change or any of the previous changes is the largest over the entire curve the market will resolve YES. Otherwise it will resolve NO if there has been an increase after 2030 which is larger than any change before 2030.

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