The goal is to predict when the adoption S-curve of share of electric car sales will reach its steepest point. This will be based on the data provided by OurWorldInData. The current graph is shown below:
The steepest point is currently 2020-2021 (9% - 4%) = 5%. 2021-2022 has achieved the same steepness. The final change that will be included in the resolution is 2029-2030. If this change or any of the previous changes is the largest over the entire curve the market will resolve YES. Otherwise it will resolve NO if there has been an increase after 2030 which is larger than any change before 2030.
I don’t have strong opinions here, yet, but what an interesting thing to try to predict. One thing that might be interesting to look at is adoption curves among cohorts, e.g. consumer owned cars, rental cars, company cars, commercial vehicles, trucking will all likely have very different curves and while consumers are in “late majority”/“laggards” stage, trucking could be in “innovators”/“early adopters.”