Will electric vehicles account for a majority of new light vehicles purchased in the United States by 2030?
1k
2030
60%
chance

Resolves to YES if any year before 2030 sees AT LEAST 50% (unrounded) market share by fully electrified vehicles according to Kelly Blue Book. Resolves NO if otherwise (no one year from now until 2030 sees at least 50% market share by fully electrified vehicles).

"Light vehicles" here means non-commercial light vehicles (e.g., sedans, light trucks, crossovers, etc.). HEVs (hybrid electric vehicles) and PHEVs (plug-in hybrid electric vehicles) are EXCLUDED from the EV market share counts; only fully electric vehicles are counted.

For some context, in Q2 of this year, fully electrified vehicles accounted for 5.6% of all vehicles purchased, compared to 2.7% in Q2 of 2021.

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predicts YES
bought Ṁ20 of NO

If solid state comes along maybe, but a lot of early adopters are the type of people who think iPhones are the defacto standard of devices and that Tesla's are well-built vehicles.
Additionally most ICE bans aren't going to hold water, they're page 1 on announcement, but will be page 17 on their pushback date when local governments figure out how anti-consumer it is.

Our electrical infrastructure is hilariously bad, road systems worse, etc.
The other aspect people forget about is two-fold: 1) Recycling clamp downs in how EVs are handled at EOL and refurbishment and 2) The increased average mass of vehicles leading to road wear and safety dropping. (Albeit it a lot of this is from morons buying SUVs/Pickups to buy groceries or cart around 2 kids and a dog. Hence why wagons and sedans are dead)
There's also the additional concern with the crossover as an off-road vehicle loophole being closed, a lot of the so called affordability is in the restrictions bypass. Any reform of these could again set back fair consumer values.
The average cost of a vehicle almost broke the $50k barrier this year. The further this continues, the more people will push into the used car market (once/IF it restores itself to previous know levels).
The EV pool isn't big enough for the used market to fill any meaningful gap + the relative unknowns of the potential moneypits rolling around could pose a problem.

Given my experience in dealerships, repair, logistics, fleet ops/mx, motorsport, journalism, etc. I wouldn't say 50% is impossible, but HIGHLY unlikely. More so that Hybrids present the best all around stop-gap for the widest demographic of buyers while EV tech matures. Furthermore, once the initial tech bubble hype train cuts the "hey we make shit up and figure it out later" and things level out, I'm sure there will be another jump in innovation in the 30's before leveling out to steady progress.

bought Ṁ50 of YES

"For car buyers, a new reality is setting in: You don’t necessarily have to pay more to go electric. The automobile industry may never be the same. [...] From the earliest days of electric vehicles, skeptics and proponents have argued that until electric vehicles cost the same as gas-powered ones, most people are unlikely to switch. [...] There are reasons to believe EVs could become even cheaper than their conventional equivalents in the near future." TL;DR: Batteries are getting cheaper and industry is switching to new iron-based batteries don't require nickel or cobalt (that are dirty, inhumane, low-supply and expensive minerals).
https://www.wsj.com/articles/electric-vehicles-are-shattering-the-barrier-to-adoption-that-could-matter-most-a30d154e?st=vquqltgrg1tzp8c&reflink=desktopwebshare_permalink

@egroj I have high hopes. But just looking at my peer and family group, hardly any of them are even considering purchasing an electric car any time soon. I own one. But your average American is extremely lazy to learn how to operate a new thing, or change their habit, or be potentially inconvenienced in the slightest way, especially when it comes to something so integral to their lives (their cars). Unfortunate, but my bet here is on NO.

An instructive example, from Norway:

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