Will 50%+ of new cars sold in USA be Electric Cars by the end of 2030?
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2031
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I'm only betting no because right now this market is at 70% while others with similar criteria are at 40 or below, and arbitrage is a thing you can do. I actually think 70% yes is about right. I'd bet higher than that actually, but a lot can happen in 6 years and I'm fairly risk averse.

predicts NO

@equinoxhq actually, disregard, the other ones I was thinking of end by the beginning of 2030. Dangit...

According to the CNBC, only 5.8% of all cars sold were EV accounting to only 800,400 cars; thus, to obtain at least 50% EV car sales, approximately 7 million cars would have to be sold in 2030. A 775% increase from this year. This seems unlikely as the infrastructure like charging stations would have to increase as well. There is currently a 5 EV to 1 Charger ratio, and even if we can double the efficiency to 10:1, we would need 700,000 charging stations which is greater than what Biden planned by 2030. Thus, I vote no by 2030.

https://www.cnbc.com/2023/04/12/epa-proposes-auto-pollution-limits-to-aggressively-boost-ev-sales-.html

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