"The Biden administration is shooting for 50% of all new car sales to be electric vehicles by 2030."
Have to do some thinking, but my current perogrative is that we'll need more than a single month of 50% for the question to resolve "Yes." If for two consecutive quarters before 2030 we have > 50% this question will resolve yes. "if the last month of 2029 is >50% and that trend continues into 2030, the the question will also resolve "Yes."
Update: This market will remain with 2030 as the deadline. There are just too many positions to change.
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China already reached this this month. This will happen much much sooner than 2030 in the US
@Philip3773733 That's excellent news about China! I'm quite wary about extrapolating that to the United States, though.
China's policies are more oriented around the common good than ever happens in the United States. And, as far as I can tell, the Chinese people are much more willing to understand the benefits of those common good policies, and not try to evade them. There's a social pressure component to it.
Specifically, EVs are obviously better if you care about things like air pollution or climate change. The Chinese citizenry do care, and they see the benefit of communal action, and thus there's not much pushback when various levels of government make things lopsidedly in favor of them.
50% or more of the US are individualistic to a fault. They refuse to even acknowledge common good issues, or solutions which require communal action.
The Chinese aren't selfless saints or anything, but they see the world through a different lens, and that difference matters in cases like this.
@Philip3773733 Maybe this article is interesting for you: https://www.theverge.com/2024/9/1/24232206/ev-sales-slow-hybrid-phev-charging-ford-tesla
They even state at the end of the article:
"Things are still volatile. A Trump victory in November could signal the end of generous tax breaks for manufacturers and consumers, which could slow things down even more. More automakers could get cold feet and scale back more plans."
I'm still very much YES on this market but it's definitely not set in stone. My prior is around 70% if democrats win and 50-60% if republicans win.
@Philip3773733 I agree that the end state will be EVs dominating, eventually. But differences in government policy will absolutely make a difference in how quickly that end state is reached.
If Republicans acknowledged climate change, I think their policy style would be more effective on a cost/benefit basis. Democrats lean towards consensus, and unions, and want to mix in social justice considerations. I have no objection to those things, but they slow things down and time is literally money.
But as we all know, Republicans are still -- in 2025! -- unwilling to acknowledge that climate change is something that requires action.
Are PHEVs counted as electric for this question? If yes, are there any particular requirements for them to be counted as a PHEV rather than as a Hybrid, other than it's possible to plug them in? That is, would a pluggable hybrid with only a 5 kWh battery count as a PHEV?
https://thedriven.io/2024/02/26/electric-vehicles-will-crush-fossil-cars-on-price-as-lithium-and-battery-prices-fall/
“This study applies estimates of the average value of the Inflation Reduction Act Advanced Manufacturing Production Tax Credit (45X) for batteries and the Clean Vehicle Tax Credit (30D) for BEVs, which are estimated to be about $2,000 per vehicle for batteries and about $2,500 for new BEV purchases on average over the 2023–2032 timeframe,” it says.
“When both incentives are combined, they reduce the upfront BEV prices by up to $4,500 on average, which accelerates the timing for purchase price parity with conventional alternatives by about 3 years.”
@GaryGrenda I notice you buying no across multiple markets, down to a far lower probability than I'd put it.
What's your estimate of the probability of EVs being >50% of sales by 2030? I could just let you bid it down to that number and then buy yes at a more favorable rate, but I figure it's nicer to ask. As a gesture of goodwill, I'll leave my limit at 30 in place, even though it seems likely you're willing to go lower.
@equinoxhq I plan to keep buying yes until we get to ~45% (unless any significantly relevant thing happens to affect the probability of this market).
@mjmandl I was trying to hint that you could probably get some yes at a better price if you waited for Gary to bet it down. There's a decent chance he thinks this definitely will not happen and would consider buying no at 20% or 10% a good deal. This market doesn't resolve until 2030, and it likely won't become clear who's right until a year or two from now.
Personally, for risk management reasons, I try not to put more than 10% of my mana in any market, or more than 20% on the same question phrased slightly differently. So I'll keep putting mana in over time, but I'm too minnowy to put this market where I think it should be in the face of significant disagreement.
I think we're at the bottom of an S-curve that tops out when almost all vehicles sold are EVs, and that the various governments around the world who are moving towards banned gas car sales in the 2030's are not making bold shoot-for the-moon pledges, but looking at what's happening with EVs and going "yup, 100% ev sales by 2030-2035 is probably going to happen anyway, but we can sound like we're forward-thinking environmentalists by pledging to do it, then claim credit".
I could be wrong of course, but the only thing that prevents me from sinking all my mana into these markets at these prices is risk management/diversification concerns.
@equinoxhq probably 15%. There is just no way for us to have the infrastructure necessary for this to happen by then. Way too many folks live in apartments. The charging just isn't there. Some percentage of people with switch to EVs, but nowhere near half any time soon simply because it's different and most people unfortunately HATE changing their habits and learning something new. I am rooting for EVs. Ive owned one for 5 years and plan to buy another soon. But 90% of my social group (and I'm pretty young, probably even greater number of older folks) think they're cool but simply aren't even considering purchasing one any time soon.
@GaryGrenda I think it will stall out around 10% of market share from 2025-2029, then start to pick up and maybe reach 50% by 2035. I'd put that at about 50/50 chance.
@GaryGrenda you do realize that the question is not about 50% of population owning an EV, but about yearly car sales, and these two are very different things? 50% of population is 150 million EVs, and 50% of sales is 7-8 million. More than 200 million US citizens live in detached houses and don't need any additional charging infrastructure. If by 2030 EV sales reach 50%, that means there will be only about 30 million EVs in total in US, out of 300 million cars.
@Bair I do. Of that 200mil in detached housing, how many of them are children? How many of that 200mil don't park their cars in a garage? Of the ones that do park them in a garage, how many don't currently have enough power in that garage for a charger? Or even enough spare power coming to their home? And how many are in rural northern latitudes? And how many simply hate the idea of EVs and won't ever change on that? We are well under 50% already I'm thinking just from those afroementioned factors.
And yes its only 50% of new car sales, but that is still a general 'look' at 50% of most cars because cars don't last forever. So a snapshot of the new car buyers in 2029 is essentially a snapshot of the car owning public in general (minus lower income folks who can't buy a 'new' car, but those folks probably aren't going EV any time soon anyway so they cancel out).
This is my thesis anyway and I am quite confident of it. 10% are willing to switch soon. But it will take a lot more nudging for your average person to do it. Itll need to be cheaper AND easier. EV makers really needed to promote the less maintenance required. That is the one point that can get many to switch. I know I love it. Zero visits to any mechanic/repair/anything in over 5 years. Love it.
@GaryGrenda I guess I have to reiterate - only 10% of US car owners have to switch to EVs by 2030 for 50% sales milestone to be reached.
@GaryGrenda if you think that 10% of people in the US are ready to buy an EV soon already - that's enough, because that's 30 million people.
This table assumes 30% growth in EV sales YoY. It probably won't be like that; it will be slower in the next couple of years and much faster in the late 20s.
@Bair no, 10% don't need to change. 10% of NEW buyers in 2029 need to change. Many of the folks willing and able will have already switched by then, which is why I expect the plateau.
@Bair Tesla expects 0% growth this year. I don't think this is due to competition. Most people I talk to think Tesla is the only brand even making EVs. The plateau may in fact already be here.
@GaryGrenda "willing" to consider an EV for their next car. Not necessarily going to, especially if they have a relatively new gas car or they drive a big SUV/truck/tow stuff.
@GaryGrenda
> 10% don't need a new car right now
Yes, they will buy it over next few years. Less than 10% of these 10% will buy the car in the next year. See the table.
> 50% of NEW buyers in 2029 need to change
If there are total 30 million of people right now in the US who are planning to buy an EV before 2030, and they will commit to this decision, you've got your 50% sales right there. I think 30 million is about right for now. In reality this number will grow much higher before 2030, so even though some people who want to buy an EV right now won't commit, their place will be taken by new adepts.
> Tesla expects 0% growth this year
That's why I'm saying that the growth will be slower in the next couple of years and much faster later, when EVs get much cheaper.
>"willing" to consider an EV for their next car.
According to the 2024 results, 24% of respondents are “very likely” to consider buying an EV, compared to 26% a year ago. And 58% of respondents said they are “overall likely” to consider one, down from 61%.
It's much higher than 10%. And it will only grow.
@Bair that 30 million might purchase an EV between now and 2029, yes. But this market would require ALL of them to make that purchase in 2029, or some calendar year before (none before, none after). So no, we need much more demand than that 30 million.
Answering a poll is much different than commiting your hard earned $30,000 to it, and installing a charger, and the necessary learning curve. Also, if that poll matched reality, shouldn't we be seeing 24% of new car sales being EVs right now?? Or something close to it at least?
@GaryGrenda just go ahead and ask the people you know who've purchased a new gas car in the last year why they didn't go electric. You'll hear the excuses. I don't see any of the reasons they are giving changing in the next 5 years. The cars are already pretty cheap with the tax credit. Plenty of fast charging infrastructure (I've traveled all over the country with my 230mile range car no problem). I guess the battery costs can drop a bit. But I don't expect them to drop significantly especially with the tax credit requirements (manufacturing things in the US is expensive).
@GaryGrenda
>So no, we need much more demand than that 30 million.
There will be much more demand.
People who are considering buying an EV and deciding to buy an ICE car instead do that mostly because EVs are still too expensive. That's going to change very soon. It already happened in China, EVs are only 15% more expensive than comparable ICE cars there, sometimes 10%. And EVs keep getting cheaper. When the price parity is reached, then the 60% who are not against EVs will actually buy them, because there wouldn't be any reason to not buy them, because EVs are simply better.
I don't see any of the reasons they are giving changing in the next 5 years.
It's obviously going to change A LOT in the next 5 years.
@Bair what about the current luxury car market, where cost isn't much of a consideration to the buyer? There are many EV models in this category from many manufacturers. The EVs are often already at cost parity here, or even cheaper. If cost was the main thing holding back adoption, shouldn't we see this market at 50% plus already? What else can change in this market that hasn't already?
@Bair like what besides cost? When I ask people that have recently bought a gas car recently why they didn't buy electric. The excuse is almost never cost. I think aeVs actually have to be significantly CHEAPER than gas cars to get to 50%. Not just at parity. And that is upfront cost. Not TCO. Hardly anyone considers TCO. People don't even realize how expensive it is to drive a car.
When I ask people that have recently bought a gas car recently why they didn't buy electric. The excuse is almost never cost.
Because they didn't do their basic research. Many people still think you have to go to a charging station to charge an EV. That's obviously going to change.
what about the current luxury car market, where cost isn't much of a consideration to the buyer?
Luxury cars are even less about rational decisions. People are just very badly informed about EVs. The more EVs are bought, the more knowledge spreads.
@Bair you are correct on all those points. I just don't see knowledge itself raising the current rate of new EV purchases to 50%. That'll help get it to maybe 20%.
@GaryGrenda what makes the US special that EV awareness won't help EV purchases cross 50% like in other countries that started the adoption earlier?
@Bair I'd guess those countries have higher financial incentives for electric cars as well as charging infrastructure (new homes/apts must have chargers, etc.) Also, some populations are simply more willing to do slightly inconvenient things for the greater good (trains, bike lanes, etc.)
@GaryGrenda Sure, I guess the better question would be is there any country that reached 10% EV sales and plateaued there for some reason for more than a year? I'm not aware of such countries.
@Bair This might be an interesting source for you, https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/electric-car-sales-share?country=OWID_WRL~NLD~USA~SWE~DNK~CHN. I have selected some countries with interesting graphs. We see for example that it took Sweden only 3 years to go from 11% to 54%. However, in The Netherlands we see a sort of stall between 2015-2019 at below 10%. I do think there are some countries where these sales have stalled in the past, largely due to early adopters (due to social factors) and government incentives leading to leading to people buying a product which is not yet financially the best option. However, I believe we will not see these same plateaus as the technology has matured quite a lot and is quickly becoming the financially optimal choice for many people (see my comment at the top of this thread).
@mjmandl Thanks! It's interesting, but this data includes PHEVs, and I prefer to look at the data without them. There's still some amount of stall in Netherlands if you look at pure BEV data, but during COVID and at higher levels.
@GaryGrenda That's an interesting thesis.
There is just no way for us to have the infrastructure necessary for this to happen by then. Way too many folks live in apartments. The charging just isn't there.
But, we're talking about people buying new cars. As you've mentioned in other comments, the people buying new cars tend to be richer than people who are buying used cars. I'd say they're often also richer than those going car free. Also correlated: having less money and living in an apartment rather than a house. Living in an apartment, and living in a place where mass transit is good enough you don't need a car (in major cities, say, where many/most live in apartment buildings because housing is very expensive). Living in a house, and having multiple vehicles. So the new car buying market is going to skew more toward richer people in houses. And those people, can afford to treat "yep, gotta spend an extra $1,000 to get a L2 charger installed, which requires some work by an electrician" as part of the price of their new car.
Also of note: I know of a couple people who didn't bother with the L2 charger, because given the amount they drive per day, any old plug would do. They don't need the car to be in a garage, just to have access to some plug, any plug. This is more workable if the EV is a small car rather than an SUV or truck, and I do live in a small city where you can drive from one end to the other in 15 minutes. But a regular 15 amp 120 volt plug can deliver say 1.5 KW, meaning 12 KWh on an 8 hour charge (assuming your car is parked in your driveway only 8 hours a day, which is likely a low estimate), average efficiency is in the ballpark of 5 KM/KWh, so if your total travel distance is less than 60 KM/day, you're fine, Lots of people fill up their gas cars (range 400-500 KM) once a week, implying a daily travel amount around 60 KM. So I think the charging infrastructure can work, for those who live in houses. Apartment buildings (distinct from apartments, many of which are basement apartments in houses, or townhouses/row houses which can be similar to detached houses in terms of electrical wiring) definitely are more difficult, as getting enough electricity for say 25-50 cars in one place is quite an undertaking, and apartment building owners are often not known for making large investments they are not required to make.
And yes its only 50% of new car sales, but that is still a general 'look' at 50% of most cars because cars don't last forever.
An average car lasts 15 years, meaning ~7% of the car stock turns over every year. If 100% of all cars sold from this day forward were EVs, then by 2030 about 40-45% of the cars on the road would be EVs. Assuming we go from current levels of sales up to 50% of car sales being EV by 2030 in a straight line rather than an exponentially increasing curve (in which case the total number of EVs sold by 2030 is greater than in the curve scenario - just visualize the area under the curve vs. a line), we're talking like maybe 10-15% of cars on the road being EVs at that time.
I do think there will be a time between now and 2030 where the electrical infrastructure is a bottleneck to EV adoption. But I also think we're going to see a much quicker uptake of EVs than you're expecting. If only 15% of cars on the road were EVs by 2030, I wouldn't expect an infrastructure problem in that year, even if 50% of cars sold in that year were EVs.