Will 50% of all new car sales in the United States be electric by 2030?
98
944
1k
2030
52%
chance

https://www.forbes.com/sites/rinatorchinsky/2023/10/28/best-and-worst-states-to-buy-an-electric-vehicle/?sh=7c69dc351e03

"The Biden administration is shooting for 50% of all new car sales to be electric vehicles by 2030."

Have to do some thinking, but my current perogrative is that we'll need more than a single month of 50% for the question to resolve "Yes." If for two consecutive quarters before 2030 we have > 50% this question will resolve yes. "if the last month of 2029 is >50% and that trend continues into 2030, the the question will also resolve "Yes."

Update: This market will remain with 2030 as the deadline. There are just too many positions to change.

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bought Ṁ100 NO

Are PHEVs counted as electric for this question? If yes, are there any particular requirements for them to be counted as a PHEV rather than as a Hybrid, other than it's possible to plug them in? That is, would a pluggable hybrid with only a 5 kWh battery count as a PHEV?

bought Ṁ50 YES

https://thedriven.io/2024/02/26/electric-vehicles-will-crush-fossil-cars-on-price-as-lithium-and-battery-prices-fall/

“This study applies estimates of the average value of the Inflation Reduction Act Advanced Manufacturing Production Tax Credit (45X) for batteries and the Clean Vehicle Tax Credit (30D) for BEVs, which are estimated to be about $2,000 per vehicle for batteries and about $2,500 for new BEV purchases on average over the 2023–2032 timeframe,” it says.

“When both incentives are combined, they reduce the upfront BEV prices by up to $4,500 on average, which accelerates the timing for purchase price parity with conventional alternatives by about 3 years.”

@GaryGrenda I notice you buying no across multiple markets, down to a far lower probability than I'd put it.

What's your estimate of the probability of EVs being >50% of sales by 2030? I could just let you bid it down to that number and then buy yes at a more favorable rate, but I figure it's nicer to ask. As a gesture of goodwill, I'll leave my limit at 30 in place, even though it seems likely you're willing to go lower.

@equinoxhq I plan to keep buying yes until we get to ~45% (unless any significantly relevant thing happens to affect the probability of this market).

@mjmandl I was trying to hint that you could probably get some yes at a better price if you waited for Gary to bet it down. There's a decent chance he thinks this definitely will not happen and would consider buying no at 20% or 10% a good deal. This market doesn't resolve until 2030, and it likely won't become clear who's right until a year or two from now.

Personally, for risk management reasons, I try not to put more than 10% of my mana in any market, or more than 20% on the same question phrased slightly differently. So I'll keep putting mana in over time, but I'm too minnowy to put this market where I think it should be in the face of significant disagreement.

I think we're at the bottom of an S-curve that tops out when almost all vehicles sold are EVs, and that the various governments around the world who are moving towards banned gas car sales in the 2030's are not making bold shoot-for the-moon pledges, but looking at what's happening with EVs and going "yup, 100% ev sales by 2030-2035 is probably going to happen anyway, but we can sound like we're forward-thinking environmentalists by pledging to do it, then claim credit".

I could be wrong of course, but the only thing that prevents me from sinking all my mana into these markets at these prices is risk management/diversification concerns.

bought Ṁ10 of YES

This could actually happen before 2030, because according to EV volumes, Global EV sales continue strong. A total of 6 million new Battery Electric Vehicles (BEV) and Plug-in Hybrids (PHEV) were delivered during the first half of 2023, an increase of +40 %. 4,27 million were pure electric BEVs and 1,76 million were PHEVs. Preliminary July results show +40 % growth again. The regional growth pattern has shifted: China EV sales increased by +37 % in 2023 H1 y/y, compared to +82 % in 2022 vs 2021. Sales in Western and Central Europe were up +28 % in H1 compared to just +15 % growth in 2022. EV sales in USA and Canada are +50 % higher YTD to June than last year.  EV sales outside the aforementioned markets increased by 102 %, albeit from a low base.  Overall vehicle markets saw a considerable recovery, with +17 % y/y growth in Europe in H1 but weaker and more volatile in China. The global light vehicle market was 11 % higher in 2023 H1 than in 2022 H1 but still trailed the 2015-2019 average by five million units on an annualized basis. China is making inroads into the EV space, and with their mass production and technigues of providing affordable vehicle for all, we should expect an exponential growth in the global EV sales.

predicts YES

@ErnestOwusue4b8 you'd need like close to 33% yoy growth over the next six years. Have other countries had this ( I think so)? Unlike other countries we do have a fairly large % of people ideologically committed to ICE cars.

Biden's goal is counting 2030: "the President will sign an Executive Order that sets an ambitious new target to make half of all new vehicles sold in 2030 zero-emissions vehicles"

https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2021/08/05/fact-sheet-president-biden-announces-steps-to-drive-american-leadership-forward-on-clean-cars-and-trucks/

@NathanScott Oh fair point. I’m pretty strict on prepositions, and “by” does include the date. I’m torn though since there are already 20 positions. I will think about this and update my decision by end of week.

bought Ṁ50 of YES

"S&P Global Mobility forecasts electric vehicle sales in the United States could reach 40 percent of total passenger car sales by 2030, and more optimistic projections foresee electric vehicle sales surpassing 50 percent by 2030 (Colato & Ice, 2023)" . Moreover, the US government has set a goal of 50% EV sales by 2030, and has provided billions of dollars in subsidies and tax breaks to support the EV market (Ewing, 2021).

Also, it should be taken into account that the cost of lithium-ion batteries has fallen dramatically in recent years (Ewing & Krauss, 2023). Making EVs more affordable and competitive with gasoline-powered vehicles. Considering this, and the growing demand for EVs, I believe it is possible that 50% of all new cars sales in the US be electric by 2030.

Sources:

Colato, J., & Ice, L. (2023, February). Charging into the future: the transition to electric vehicles : Beyond the Numbers: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Www.bls.gov. https://www.bls.gov/opub/btn/volume-12/charging-into-the-future-the-transition-to-electric-vehicles.htm#:~:text=S%26P%20Global%20Mobility%20forecasts%20electric

Ewing, J. (2021, August 5). President Biden sets a goal of 50 percent electric vehicle sales by 2030. The New York Times. https://www.nytimes.com/2021/08/05/business/biden-electric-vehicles.html

Ewing, J., & Krauss, C. (2023, March 20). Falling Lithium Prices Are Making Electric Cars More Affordable. The New York Times. https://www.nytimes.com/2023/03/20/business/lithium-prices-falling-electric-vehicles.html

bought Ṁ70 of NO

I'm thinking that if Toyota's new battery tech pans out they might change my calculus here, but I'm sort of in the industry and haven't really heard anything incredible about it, so I feel reasonably safe taking the standard view here.

According to S&P Global Mobility estimates, it's projected that 40% of all vehicle sales in the US will be electric vehicles (EVs) by 2030. While more optimistic forecasts exist, the S&P estimate is widely acknowledged for its consistency and credibility. So, I belive the number will be close to 50% but not half exactly.

https://www.bls.gov/opub/btn/volume-12/charging-into-the-future-the-transition-to-electric-vehicles.htm#:~:text=S%26P%20Global%20Mobility%20forecasts%20electric,surpassing%2050%20percent%20by%202030.

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