Resolution Criteria:
The resolution will be based on the total number of electric vehicles sold globally as reported by a reputable and widely recognized source such as the International Energy Agency (IEA) or the Electric Vehicle Outlook report by BloombergNEF.
The timeframe for determining the resolution will be the calendar year 2025, and the final number will be the total number of electric vehicles sold across all countries and regions.
The market will be deemed invalid and resolved N/A if the sources mentioned above for determining the resolution are found to be unreliable.
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Haven't seen an update from Bloomberg so going by IEA BEV only now with a much simpler analysis: subtracting 2023-2023 using BEV car stock graph only:
(16.1-10.7)+(6.7-4.4)+(3.5-2.1)+(1.9-1.1) ~= 9.9 M new BEV sales in 2023. Change from 2023/2022 = 28.2/18.3 ~= 150%. Taking the difference from from 2025-2024 based on same rate of ~150%: (28.2 (1.5)^2) - (28.2 * (1.5)) ~= 22M
It is anticipated that the global sales of vehicles will surpass the figures by 2025. Based on a report, from Statista the electric vehicle market is projected to have a value of around $567 billion by 2025. The number of passenger vehicles in use globally is expected to grow from an estimated 20 million in 2022 to 145 million by 2030. Also the vehicle sales are projected to increase from 6.6 million in 2021 to 20.6 million in 2025. By that time it is predicted that plug in vehicles will contribute to 23% of passenger vehicle sales worldwide compared to just under 10% in 2021 with three quarters of them being fully electric. The global electric car market is forecasted to reach 34 million units by the year 2025 due to rising demand for vehicles in countries like China, Europe and the United States. While these estimates may vary depending on factors such, as government policies, technological advancements and consumer preferences it seems likely that the total number of vehicles sold globally in 2025 will exceed the count.
https://www.statista.com/statistics/1224527/ev-market-size-worldwide-segment-forecast/
https://energy5.com/the-rise-of-electric-cars-a-sneak-peek-into-2025
Only BEVs? If including plug-in hybrids it should probably be much higher, as the sales from 2023 just for BEV alone is above 7 million: https://about.bnef.com/electric-vehicle-outlook/
Based on outlook from https://www.counterpointresearch.com/global-ev-sales-q4-2022/
As China is the dominant manufacturer, what would prevent current BEV manufacturing and sales from staying the same or growing? Off the top of my head: war in Asia, especially with Chinese involvement (Ukraine,Taiwan,etc), economic recession in China/Asia, decline in material availability, another pandemic, supply shocks.
What about an ideal (baseline) scenario: if you assumed nothing affecting manufacturing and sales would happen and 50% growth over 3 years from a 2022 number of 7.3 million (7.3 * ((1.50)^3) ~= 24.6 million. With the chaos present in geopolitics alone, even over a short term of three years this seems not that plausible.
I don't know how to modify this value downwards to make it realistic so I will try to do it naively: at 6.1 million for 2025 means that this is ~0.23 of the above number for an EV boom for the next 3 years, and this seems even less plausible, as for example: 2020 sales only dropped 15%: https://www.iea.org/commentaries/how-global-electric-car-sales-defied-covid-19-in-2020
Take a few scenarios for growth for 2023,2024,2025 relative to 2022 numbers of 7.2:
(Ideal): 50%, 50%, 50%: 7.2 x 1.5 x 1.5 x 1.5 ~= 24.3 million
(1 bad COVID like year): 7.2 x 1.5 x 1.5 x 0.85 ~= 13.8 million
(2 bad COVID like years): 7.2 x 1.5 x 0.85 x 0.85 ~= 7.8 million
(3 bad COVID like years): 7.2 x 0.85 x 0.85 x 0.85 ~= 4.4 million
Taking a (dumb) average of these scenarios ~= 12.6 million
Using this (lax) reasoning, I am cautiously betting higher.
Based on this naive analysis I am betting HIGHER