This question will resolve as YES if more than 50% of new cars sold worldwide in the year 2030 are electric.
The source for determining the percentage of electric cars sold will be the International Energy Agency (IEA) annual report on electric vehicles. The report will be released in 2031 and will provide data on the percentage of electric cars sold in 2030. This question does not include hybrid cars, only fully electric cars.
The question does not consider any potential changes in regulations or government policies that may affect the sales of electric cars.
This question does not consider any potential changes in consumer behavior or technology development that may affect the sales of electric cars.
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oh, nvm now it works! (I was wrong, the UI tricked me)
Yeah it's to exit my position so I don't need mana.
Though a lot of them got cancelled so not sure what happened. Back up now.
Skimming the 2024 report, I'm surprised to see China way in the lead regarding new EV sales. We have 3 major regions accounting for 95% of EV sales (China, Europe, US).
These regions make up 65% of the total car sales, so as a rule of thumb, we can consider the remaining 35% to count fully towards the ICE side*. That means we need to reach ~70% new sales being EV in the 3 big regions to reach 50% globally. I'm guessing China will make that target, but I'm very skeptical of the other two. It's a NO for me.
* EV infrastructure is very dependent on network effects, and since poorer countries have way older cars as a rule, I simply do not see this number budging on a 5 year timeframe.
If you compound falling battery prices and offers to charge for free (or being paid for it) that will go mainstream, I don't see how people could still buy a majority of ICE in 5 years.
@figo https://www.amber.com.au/ 🇦🇺❤️ can't wait to see this happening elsewhere. The duck curve is coming after electricity prices all around the world 🦆📈
For bets on this in France: I created this market https://manifold.markets/figo/will-it-be-possible-to-charge-an-ev
https://manifold.markets/neweconomicplan/will-50-of-all-new-car-sales-in-the?r=dGhlc2hvcnRicmVhZA
You all really think that the US has smaller chance of being majority electric than the world as a whole?
The IEA Announced Pledges Scenario (APS), which is based on existing climate-focused policy pledges and announcements, presumes that EVs represent more than 30% of vehicles sold globally in 2030 across all modes (excluding two- and three-wheelers). While impressive, this is still well short of the 60% share needed by 2030 to align with a trajectory that would reach net zero CO2 emissions by 2050. Under current policy plans reflected in the IEA Stated Policies Scenario (STEPS), EVs reach just over 20% of sales in 2030, increasing the stock 11-fold from today’s levels to 200 million vehicles. (source)
@marktwse Noting that the IEA report includes hybrids and so the rest of my comment will too... Quick googling says that the number of EVs sold in 2024 (~17 million) was ~= the total number of EVs on the road in 2021 (meaning basically all the EVs ever manufactured as of that year, not those sold in that year).
Again by googling, 2024 EV sales seem to be 20% of total sales, meaning the IEA's status quo projection made in 2022 based on 2021 data, for what would happen in 2030, happened in 2024 instead.