Will the majority of new cars sold worldwide be electric before the end of 2030?
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2030
50%
chance

This question will resolve as YES if more than 50% of new cars sold worldwide in the year 2030 are electric.

The source for determining the percentage of electric cars sold will be the International Energy Agency (IEA) annual report on electric vehicles. The report will be released in 2031 and will provide data on the percentage of electric cars sold in 2030. This question does not include hybrid cars, only fully electric cars.

The question does not consider any potential changes in regulations or government policies that may affect the sales of electric cars.

This question does not consider any potential changes in consumer behavior or technology development that may affect the sales of electric cars.

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bought Ṁ100 NO

Skimming the 2024 report, I'm surprised to see China way in the lead regarding new EV sales. We have 3 major regions accounting for 95% of EV sales (China, Europe, US).

These regions make up 65% of the total car sales, so as a rule of thumb, we can consider the remaining 35% to count fully towards the ICE side*. That means we need to reach ~70% new sales being EV in the 3 big regions to reach 50% globally. I'm guessing China will make that target, but I'm very skeptical of the other two. It's a NO for me.

* EV infrastructure is very dependent on network effects, and since poorer countries have way older cars as a rule, I simply do not see this number budging on a 5 year timeframe.

predicts YES

Close date of 3031...

bought Ṁ10 of YES

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/falling-battery-prices-will-accelerate-ev-sales-goldman-164123354.html

If you compound falling battery prices and offers to charge for free (or being paid for it) that will go mainstream, I don't see how people could still buy a majority of ICE in 5 years.

predicts YES

@figo https://www.amber.com.au/ 🇦🇺❤️ can't wait to see this happening elsewhere. The duck curve is coming after electricity prices all around the world 🦆📈

For bets on this in France: I created this market https://manifold.markets/figo/will-it-be-possible-to-charge-an-ev

bought Ṁ35 of NO

https://manifold.markets/neweconomicplan/will-50-of-all-new-car-sales-in-the?r=dGhlc2hvcnRicmVhZA

You all really think that the US has smaller chance of being majority electric than the world as a whole?

predicts NO

If it's hard for the US for it to happen I'd say it's almost impossible that it will happen in developing countries which lack much more electric car infrastructure

bought Ṁ20 of NO

The IEA Announced Pledges Scenario (APS), which is based on existing climate-focused policy pledges and announcements, presumes that EVs represent more than 30% of vehicles sold globally in 2030 across all modes (excluding two- and three-wheelers). While impressive, this is still well short of the 60% share needed by 2030 to align with a trajectory that would reach net zero CO2 emissions by 2050. Under current policy plans reflected in the IEA Stated Policies Scenario (STEPS), EVs reach just over 20% of sales in 2030, increasing the stock 11-fold from today’s levels to 200 million vehicles. (source)