What will be the global share of new cars sold that are electric by:
13
Ṁ375Ṁ6602051
34%
2026
46%
2027
50%
2030
62%
2040
71%
2050
Resolved
21%2024
Resolved
25%2025
Resolves based on our world in data.
https://ourworldindata.org/electric-car-sales
Their figure includes plug in hybrids. Was 8% in 2022.
The idea of this question is the exclude hydrogen or any other competing technologies.
I may change the data source if our world in data is no longer available (eg in 2050).
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Market context
Get 
1,000 to start trading!
1,000People are also trading
Will the majority of new cars sold worldwide be electric before the end of 2030?
53% chance
Will the majority of new cars sold be electric vehicles by the end of 2030?
47% chance
Will 50%+ of new cars sold in USA be Electric Cars by the end of 2030?
38% chance
Will 50% of all new car sales in the United States be electric by 2030?
28% chance
Will a G7 country have greater than 50% of new car sales being battery powered electric vehicles by the end of 2026?
10% chance
Will electric vehicles account for a majority of new light vehicles purchased in the United States by 2030?
26% chance
Will new energy vehicles (BEV, PHEV, FCEV) make for more than 45% of new cars in 2027 in China?
89% chance
In 2030, will most new car sales in Brazil be electric cars?
66% chance
What percentage of new vehicle registrations in Canada will be plug in electric by the end of 2026?
25% chance
Which year will electric and plugin hybrid new car sales be a majority of all new car sales in the USA?
2030
Sort by:
GM abandons plan to build 400,000 EVs by mid-2024
People are also trading
Related questions
Will the majority of new cars sold worldwide be electric before the end of 2030?
53% chance
Will the majority of new cars sold be electric vehicles by the end of 2030?
47% chance
Will 50%+ of new cars sold in USA be Electric Cars by the end of 2030?
38% chance
Will 50% of all new car sales in the United States be electric by 2030?
28% chance
Will a G7 country have greater than 50% of new car sales being battery powered electric vehicles by the end of 2026?
10% chance
Will electric vehicles account for a majority of new light vehicles purchased in the United States by 2030?
26% chance
Will new energy vehicles (BEV, PHEV, FCEV) make for more than 45% of new cars in 2027 in China?
89% chance
In 2030, will most new car sales in Brazil be electric cars?
66% chance
What percentage of new vehicle registrations in Canada will be plug in electric by the end of 2026?
25% chance
Which year will electric and plugin hybrid new car sales be a majority of all new car sales in the USA?
2030