[Metaculus] Will China make an official statement before 2030 threatening nuclear use before...interference with Taiwan?
[Metaculus] Will China make an official statement before 2030 threatening nuclear use before...interference with Taiwan?
9
1kṀ12872030
22%
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Will China make an official statement before 2030 threatening nuclear use before if there is interference with Taiwan?
Resolves the same as the original on Metaculus.
Resolution criteria
This question resolves as Yes if, between question launch and January 1, 2030, China makes an official statement threatening nuclear use if another nation gets its military involved in the China-Taiwan situation. The question resolves as No otherwise.
Fine print and additional background information can be found on Metaculus.
Once the original resolves, its resolution will be applied to this market automatically. Trustworthy-ish users are encouraged to resolve this market before then if the outcome is known and unambiguous. Feel free to ping @jskf to request early resolution or to report issues.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
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