[Metaculus] Will China make an official statement before 2030 threatening nuclear use before...interference with Taiwan?
3
550
2030
30%
chance

Will China make an official statement before 2030 threatening nuclear use before if there is interference with Taiwan?

Resolves the same as the original on Metaculus.


Resolution criteria

This question resolves as Yes if, between question launch and January 1, 2030, China makes an official statement threatening nuclear use if another nation gets its military involved in the China-Taiwan situation. The question resolves as No otherwise.

Fine print and additional background information can be found on Metaculus.


Once the original resolves, its resolution will be applied to this market automatically. Trustworthy-ish users are encouraged to resolve this market before then if the outcome is known and unambiguous. Feel free to ping @jskf to request early resolution or to report issues.

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