Will the People's Republic of China control at least half of Taiwan before 2030?

Resolves the same as the original on Metaculus.

Resolution criteria

This question will resolve as Yes if, before January 1, 2030, any of events 1-3 occurs, and 4 also occurs.

1. There are at least five reliable articles listing areas controlled by the People's Republic of China, including areas of the current territory ("free area" as of October 2020) of the Republic of China (including the islands of Taiwan, Penghu, Kinmen and Matsu) which amount to at least half the population of the current territory of the ROC, according to the latest reliable population demographic data of the ROC.
   

2. There are at least five non-opinion articles from different reliable sources asserting that the PRC controls at least half or most of Taiwan.
   

3. There are at least five articles (including opinion articles) from different reliable sources asserting that the ROC is a puppet state of the PRC and citing evidence that the government of the majority of the ROC is de facto controlled by China, and the ROC (rather than a third state) controls at least half of the current territory of the ROC. Articles which, in the judgment of Metaculus, are hyperbole or otherwise do not make a strong case that the ROC is a puppet state of the PRC will not count.

4. There are no export controls or immigration restrictions in either direction, from the PRC to the ROC or vice versa. (This condition being true is indicative of reasonably strong politico-economic integration.)

Fine print and additional background information can be found on Metaculus.

Once the original resolves, its resolution will be applied to this market automatically. Trustworthy-ish users are encouraged to resolve this market before then if the outcome is known and unambiguous. Feel free to ping @jskf to request early resolution or to report issues.