Will China carry out a cyberattack on Taiwan’s electricity infrastructure before 2030?

Resolves the same as the original on Metaculus.

Resolution criteria

This question resolves as Yes if, before January 1, 2030, China carries out a cyberattack on Taiwan’s electricity infrastructure that causes loss of electricity for at least 10,000 people for at least 1 day. The question resolves as No otherwise.

Fine print and additional background information can be found on Metaculus.

Once the original resolves, its resolution will be applied to this market automatically. Trustworthy-ish users are encouraged to resolve this market before then if the outcome is known and unambiguous. Feel free to ping @jskf to request early resolution or to report issues.