[Metaculus] Will the U.S. make an official statement before 2030 threatening nuclear use in the defense of Taiwan?
5
2.4k
2030
9%
chance

Will the U.S. make an official statement before 2030 threatening nuclear use in the defense of Taiwan?

Resolves the same as the original on Metaculus.


Resolution criteria

This question resolves as Yes if, before January 1, 2030, the U.S. makes an official statement threatening nuclear use in the defense of Taiwan, if Taiwan is attacked by an adversary. The question resolves as No otherwise.

Fine print and additional background information can be found on Metaculus.


Once the original resolves, its resolution will be applied to this market automatically. Trustworthy-ish users are encouraged to resolve this market before then if the outcome is known and unambiguous. Feel free to ping @jskf to request early resolution or to report issues.

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