[Metaculus] Will a non-test Anti-Satellite (ASAT) weapon be used against a satellite before 2030?
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2030
32%
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Will a non-test ASAT weapon be used against a satellite before 2030?

Resolves the same as the original on Metaculus.


Resolution criteria

This question will resolve as Yes if before January 1, 2030, credible sources report that an ASAT weapon was deliberately used against another satellite in a non-test capacity. The deployment of an ASAT weapon does not have to be successful for this question to resolve as Yes. Any attempted offensive use of an ASAT, as confirmed by a credible source, will resolve the question as Yes. The ASAT weapon must be used offensively, ASAT attacks with consent from the satellite owner (for example, for the purposes of space cleanup) do not qualify.


This market is managed by a bot. Once the original question resolves this market should automatically resolve the next time the bot is run. If the original resolved more than a day ago and this question is still open, ping @jskf. I might resolve this N/A if I find out it's a duplicate of an existing question within three days of market creation.

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