Satellite downed by offensive operation before 2026?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any artificial satellite constructed by humans and in orbit above the Kármán line (an altitude of 100 km [62 mi] above sea level) is intentionally and nonconsensually damaged to the point of nonfunction, destroyed, or otherwise brought out of orbit via offensive actions perpetrated by any individual or group between May 22, 2024, 12:00 PM ET and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

This market will resolve based on official statements by involved parties and a consensus of credible reporting

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Which countries do you >30-%-folks see attacking and and whom? Over 30% seems high compared to overall expectations on war and peace, even if there is capability.

@JuhoPennanen Idk why anyone bet anything, I've not bet on my market, however a string of articles around this particular info is what spurred this market's creation:

This excludes shooting down a satellite that belongs to that nation right ?

@RemNi It should exclude a nation specifically and intentionally shooting down its own satellite, yes.

bought Ṁ50 YES

Disabling with lasers seems the least disastrous and maybe most likely here to me.

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