Satellite downed by offensive operation before 2026?
44
1kṀ6725
2026
12%
chance

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any artificial satellite constructed by humans and in orbit above the Kármán line (an altitude of 100 km [62 mi] above sea level) is intentionally and nonconsensually damaged to the point of nonfunction, destroyed, or otherwise brought out of orbit via offensive actions perpetrated by any individual or group between May 22, 2024, 12:00 PM ET and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

This market will resolve based on official statements by involved parties and a consensus of credible reporting

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Satellite lost in FNAF: Security Breach teaser ahead of 2026 release.


Which countries do you >30-%-folks see attacking and and whom? Over 30% seems high compared to overall expectations on war and peace, even if there is capability.

@JuhoPennanen Idk why anyone bet anything, I've not bet on my market, however a string of articles around this particular info is what spurred this market's creation: https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cq55ww5j7e2o

This excludes shooting down a satellite that belongs to that nation right ?

@RemNi It should exclude a nation specifically and intentionally shooting down its own satellite, yes.

bought Ṁ50 YES

Disabling with lasers seems the least disastrous and maybe most likely here to me.

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People are also trading

[Metaculus] Will a non-test Anti-Satellite (ASAT) weapon be used against a satellite before 2030?
32% chance
Will we experience a year where all satellite launches fail before 2040?
4% chance
Will there be an attempt of a large-scale Russian offensive by 2026?
80% chance
Yet another large coordinated "exploding devices" attack before 2026?
31% chance
Will Lumen Orbit have a satellite in orbit in 2025?
79% chance
Will the USA have lasers in space capable of destroying enemy satellites by 2027?
23% chance
Starlink (SpaceX) has operational internet satellites in Moon orbit by 2035
45% chance
Will Taiwan successfully demonstrate an anti-satellite capability before 2035?
41% chance
Will anyone on Earth be injured by debris from a Starlink satellite by the start of 2035?
10% chance
Starlink (SpaceX) has operational internet satellites in Mars orbit by 2045
56% chance
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