Satellite downed by offensive operation before 2026?
44
1kṀ6757
2026
13%
chance

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any artificial satellite constructed by humans and in orbit above the Kármán line (an altitude of 100 km [62 mi] above sea level) is intentionally and nonconsensually damaged to the point of nonfunction, destroyed, or otherwise brought out of orbit via offensive actions perpetrated by any individual or group between May 22, 2024, 12:00 PM ET and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

This market will resolve based on official statements by involved parties and a consensus of credible reporting

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