[Metaculus] Will a US aircraft carrier be destroyed in combat before 2030?
[Metaculus] Will a US aircraft carrier be destroyed in combat before 2030?
12
170Ṁ12962030
22%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Will a US aircraft carrier be destroyed in combat before 2030?
Resolves the same as the original on Metaculus.
Resolution criteria
This question will resolve as Yes if, before January 1, 2030, reporting from credible sources indicates that a United States aircraft carrier has been sunk, destroyed, or damaged such that it must be decommissioned due to enemy military action. This question pertains to the carrier vehicle (CVs) class, NOT helicopter carriers (such as LHD's).
Fine print and additional background information can be found on Metaculus.
Once the original resolves, its resolution will be applied to this market automatically. Trustworthy-ish users are encouraged to resolve this market before then if the outcome is known and unambiguous. Feel free to ping @jskf to request early resolution or to report issues.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000 to start trading!
1,000What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
Related questions
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
Related questions
[Metaculus] Will a US aircraft carrier be destroyed in combat before 2050?
34% chance
[Metaculus] Will there be a tsunami that kills at least 50,000 people before 2030?
28% chance
Will any aircraft carrier be lost at sea before 2036?
46% chance
Will hypersonic missile(s) sink a US aircraft carrier by 2030?
9% chance
Will China sink a US aircraft carrier before 2030?
16% chance
The USA loses an aircraft carrier through 2030
33% chance
Will any navy ship of more than 2,000 tonnes be sunk in ship-to-ship combat before 2036?
48% chance
Will the Chinese aircraft carrier Liaoning sink before 2033
19% chance
Will any military vessel of more than 15,000 tonnes be lost at sea before 2036?
53% chance
The USA loses an aircraft carrier through 2026
5% chance