[Metaculus] Will a major cyberattack/malware use LLMs in some important way before January 1st, 2025? [Ṁ1000 subsidy]
33
1.4kṀ22k
resolved Jan 3
Resolved
NO

Will a major cyberattack, virus, worm, etc. that uses LLMs in some important way occur before January 1st, 2025?

Resolves the same as the original on Metaculus.


Resolution criteria

This question will resolve positively if credible sources report that a major cyberattack, virus, or worm that uses LLMs results in any of the following:

  • At least one person is killed

  • There is at least 10 million dollars worth of damage

  • a medical facility, government facility, or company with a market value of at least 100 million dollars is unable to continue basic functions at any given point because of such a cyberattack, worm, or virus.

If none of these scenarios occur before January 1st 2025, this question will resolve negatively.


This market is managed by a bot. Once the original question resolves this market should automatically resolve the next time the bot is run. If the original resolved more than a day ago and this question is still open, ping @jskf. I might resolve this N/A if I find out it's a duplicate of an existing question within three days of market creation.

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