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MANIFOLD
Will there be at least one major U.S. blackout caused by a cyberattack by 2027?
42
Ṁ10kṀ31k
Jan 1
7%
chance

By January 1st, 2027, will there be a power blackout with at least 10 million person-hours of disruption for U.S. residents (e.g. 1 million people for 10 hours), caused by a cyberwarfare attack? (AI enabled or otherwise)

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filled a Ṁ100 YES at 17% order

I recently read https://blog.bluedot.org/p/how-ai-could-enable-critical-infrastructure-collapse

Bear case: The electrical grid will be well-defended by US cyber defense (e.g. NSA).

Bull case: The NSA and other US cyber defenses will not prioritize preventing blackouts, and will instead focus on preventing worse harms than blackouts.

How AI could enable critical infrastructure collapse
Our society rests on critical infrastructure providing clean water for drinking, transport links that bring food from farm to store and electricity to power homes and hospitals.
sold Ṁ100 YES

Undid my order because I'm dumb and didn't read the deadline date correctly.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Volt_Typhoon

opened a Ṁ1,000 NO at 32% order

How will attribution be resolved? Must a U.S. federal agency attribute to the blackout to a cyberattack? What if only a foreign/nonstate actor claims responsibility but the U.S. claims a different cause of the blackout?

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