Will there be at least one major U.S. blackout caused by a cyberattack by 2027?

10kṀ11k

2027

23%

chance

ALL

By January 1st, 2027, will there be a power blackout with at least 10 million person-hours of disruption for U.S. residents (e.g. 1 million people for 10 hours), caused by a cyberwarfare attack? (AI enabled or otherwise)

Market context

Get

1,000

to start trading!

2 Comments

22 Holders

40 Trades

Sort by:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Volt_Typhoon

opened a Ṁ1,000 NO at 32% order

How will attribution be resolved? Must a U.S. federal agency attribute to the blackout to a cyberattack? What if only a foreign/nonstate actor claims responsibility but the U.S. claims a different cause of the blackout?

People are also trading

Will sabotage cause 250k+ power outage in a U.S. megacity by 2026?

15% chance

Will a cyber attack by a top 10 GDP nation exposing mass private civilian data occur before 2028?

77% chance

[Metaculus] Will China carry out a cyberattack on Taiwan’s electricity infrastructure before 2030?

50% chance

People are also trading

Related questions