The reporting on Mike Johnson's impending budget deal (likely to land after another brief continuing resolution) suggests he's going to end up with a fairly similar deal to what his ousted predecessor had proposed. While he does intend for it to be passed via something vaguely resembling normal order (i.e. as a set of appropriations bills rather than a last-minute omnibus) there's some question as to whether that will satisfy the same cadre of republicans who yanked McCarthy.

This question will resolve YES if a motion to vacate is voted on (regardless of outcome) AND it seems to be substantively due to the circumstances of the budget deal he is negotiating (in my sole opinion). It resolves NO if no vote happens by market close, or if the effort to remove him is not (in my opinion) primarily due to his handling of the budget. If he dies or is removed from Congress before market close, this will resolve N/A (please pay attention to that detail).

I'll add any clarifications needed in the comments, and if something seems important enough I will edit the description to make it more apparent. I will not bet on this market.