If X happens by EOY 2024, will Netanyahu be replaced as prime minister by EOY 2025?
Basic
5
Ṁ2262025
69%
Baseline (will be resolved to YES or NO only)
50%
Bezalel Smotrich quits or gets fired over dispute with Netanyahu
40%
Yoav Gallant quits or gets fired over dispute with Netanyahu
32%
Benny Gants quits or gets fired over dispute with Netanyahu
32%
Israel and Saudi Arabia normalizes relations
24%
IDF takes control over Rafah
At the end of 2024, I'll resolve all the options that didn't happen to N/A. Then at the end of 2025 I'll resolve the remaining options by whether or not Netanyahu serves as the prime minister of Israel.
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